Saturday, October 20, 2001

Can Bush 'get' Bin Laden

Almost two weeks into the US-led military assault
against Afghanistan, the key question many people are
asking is: Will George Bush get Osama Bin Laden? Will
Bin Laden be caught alive? Or will he manage to slip
away?
Judging from whatever little has been disclosed by the
US of its military strategy, it is abundantly clear
that without deploying a sizeable ground force
supported by massive and close air cover, the US-led
coalition would not be able to do much in real terms.
And the risk of battle-hardened Taliban fighters
engaging the invaders in the rough terrains of the
Afghan mountains is pretty high.
It is often heard these days that Afghanistan has
always made things difficult for invaders, starting
with Alexander the Great to British forces at the peak
of the colonial days to the Red Army in the 80s. The
immediate counterpoint is also heard: None of those
invaders had the hi-tech military might to back them.
Put in simple terms, the US has the firepower to
demolish mountains in their entirety if they stood in
the way. That is a luxury that none of the previous
invaders had.
Indeed, with the raid carried out by Special Forces
near Kandahar on Saturday (as Friday night depending
on which part of the world you are in), the US has
launched the riskiest part — but also potentially
decisive stage — of its military action against
Afghanistan in the war against terrorism.
Breaking away from 12 days of aerial bombings and
missile attacks, the US sent over 100 Army Rangers —
highly trained soldiers from the Special Forces — for
the operation and pulled them out safely after they
accomplished whatever they went in for. Command
centres would have heaved a big sigh when it was
confirmed that the operation was over without any
American casualties.
The actual impact of the raid apart, the operation was
also important in symbolism: US President George W
Bush was tellng his allies and foes alike that he was
not bluffing when he said he was determined to see
through the war against terrorism and ready for the
risk it carries in terms of American casualties.
Seen against Bush's firm pledges and obvious
determination, it is foregone conclusion that he has
already ordered his commanders to do what it takes to
achieve the US objective: Get Bin Laden dead or alive.

Now we also hear that the action against Afghanistan
could stretch for months, even until April of May.
Politics of the equation apart (dwindling Arab, Muslim
and international support in the event of a protracted
conflict), the US seems confident of its ability to
sustain the action. However, it still does not
necessarily mean Bush would get Bin Laden.
Bush's ultimate glory would indeed be television
footage of a hand-cuffed and rejected looking Bin
Laden escorted into a US helicopter by US soldiers for
trial in the US. But it seems like his ultimate,
unrealisable dream too. For, those who have known Bin
Laden in Afghanistan swear on their soul that the
number one enemy of the US would not be taken alive.
They say that Bin Laden, who rejects suicide in line
with his Islamist beliefs, always keeps one guard
close to him with a loaded gun and strict
instructions: Shoot and kill me if capture becomes
inevitable.