Saturday, January 08, 2005

What next in Palestine..

January 8 2005


Palestine: Not a question of who, but what next

pv vivekanand

IT IS not as much as who will win the Palestinian presidential election as whether the new elected leader would be able to achieve peace based on the people's legitimate rights and put an end to their more than half a century of sufferings. It is the question that is haunting the Palestinian people.

Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), who assumed the mantle of chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) following the death of Yasser Arafat in November, is seen to have been assured of poll victory.

He played the role of a perfect politician in the run-up to the election by assuring those who advocate armed struggle that he would protect them from Israeli attacks and pledging that he would not budge on the rights of the Palestinians while negotiating peace with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Sharon has not commented on Abu Mazen's declarations, perhaps because he thought it was only expected of a presidential candidate. The Sharon camp seems to believe that they could successfully negotiate with Abu Mazen without budging from their hard-line rejection of some of the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people.

At the same time, they did not stop their military crackdown on Palestinian resistance. Israeli incursions into the Gaza Strip have exacted a heavy death toll and massive destruction in the final days before the election as if to underline its scorched earth policy against Palestinian resistance.

On New Year Day, Ibtihal Abu Thaher, 10, was killed in the Jabalyia Refugee Camp and her 11-year-old brother injured when an Israeli tank shell hit them as they played outside their home. At least 30 homes and shops were demolished by Israeli forces on Jan.2

On Jan.4, eight people were killed by tank shells. They included six children from the same family. The Israeli military claimed that soldiers were firing at armed men, but witnesses and doctors said the casualties were mostly children playing in an open field.

The Israeli justified the attacks saying Palestinians fired rockets at Jewish settlements. Al Quds Brigades, the military wing of the Islamic Jihad, and Hamas' Izzeddin Al Qassam Brigades claimed the attacks, some of which caused no casualties. Some 12 Israeli soldiers were injured on Jan.5.

Hero's welcome

Some attacks came even as Abu Mazen was campaigning in the Gaza Strip, where he was given a hero's welcome despite the decision by Hamas and Islamic Jihad to boycott the election.

Hamas has said the decision was "irreversible" and that it would not enter a candidate in the race. It asserted it would not endorse any other candidate; nor would its supporters vote on election day.

Abu Mazen has said he would use persuasion with the group to work out a ceasefire with Israel.

"We will not use force with Hamas but we will use the way of persuasion and negotiation," he said.

"We consider that fighting among Palestinians is a red line that must not be crossed."

In public, Israeli leaders say that they had no "preferred candidate" but the way they have gone ahead in "helping" arrange the election indicates that they favour Abu Mazen.

However, during the campaigning, Abu Mazen made clear he would make no compromises over his people's rights.

Abu Mazen made several firm points:

* On Jan.1, in a speech marking the occasion of Fateh's 40th anniversary, he said he was committed to following Yasser Arafat's path. "Occupation would eventually end," he said. "We will not forget our brothers behind Israeli bars and we will not forget the wanted Palestinians who are heroes fighting for freedom. We will not forget the refugees..." he said.

* The right of Palestinian refugees to return home or exercise the option of receiving compensation for their properties lost in 1948 is supreme to any agreement with Israel.

* The release of the more than 7,000 Palestinian prisoners is key to any peace agreement. Without their freedom, there would be no deal.

* The prisoners should be allowed to vote. The Palestinian National Authority (PNA) has filed an application with Israel for the purposes (It is unlikely to be granted, reports indicated).

* The state of Palestine that would be created after negotiations with Israel will include the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and its capital will be Arab East Jerusalem.

* The PNA will protect those waging armed resistance from Israeli attacks.

"When we see them, when we meet them, and when they welcome us, we owe them," he said. "This debt always is to protect them from assassination, to protect them from killing, and all these things they are subject to by the Israelis."

* However, the firing of rockets towards Israeli settlements and towns are counter-productive since they lead to heavy Israeli retaliation resulting in the death of Palestinian children.

"Firing these rockets is of no use. These rockets only hurt our people and lead to (Israeli) aggressions and I am making no apologies for what I said," he said in reference to his condemnation of the attacks.

"When we speak of the rule of law, we mean that we refuse security chaos and we should not allow conditions to be exploited and give Israelis any excuse to continue their aggressions," he said

The main hardline factions described his remarks "as a stab in the back of the resistance."

However, in general terms, Abu Mazen seems to have pleased many prospective voters.

Israeli views

Again, how the Israelis viewed his statements is subject to debate.

However, they should have been worried by the welcome Abu Mazen received at a gathering attended by hundreds of people and dozens of Aqsa Martyrs Brigades activists. He was treated as a hero by the Brigades, who hoisted him on their shoulders,

in a show of support that sparked criticism from the US, which called the incident "worrying."

During a Jan.4 speech in Al Bireh in the West Bank, Abu Mazen called Israel the "Zionist enemy." Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert lashed back saying such comments were "unacceptable and unforgivable."

Israel has allowed Abu Mazen to campaign in Arab East Jerusalem where residents would be allowed to vote in five post offices as they did in 1996. The Israeli permission to allow him to visit the occupied city is deemed to be a concession, given that the occupation force never allowed Arafat to enter the city.

Mustafa Barghouti, who is second in line behind Abu Mazen in the race, was arrested and interrogated for three hours by Israeli police in occupied Jerusalem because they said he did not have permission to be campaigning in the city.

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine has announced that it would support his candidacy because the group agreed with him on a national democratic programme.

Despite the frenzy of elections, most Palestinians are sceptical whether Sharon, the hawkish Israeli prime minister, would budge from his denial of their legitimate rights.

They seem to think -- along with many in the Arab World -- that Sharon's "enthusiasm" would disappear when confronted with the reality that neither Abu Mazen nor any other Palestinian leader would make a compromise over the rights of the Palestinian people.

In the meantime, Sharon has rearranged his coalition government ahead of his plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip later this year.

Sharon, who has called 2005 a "year of opportunity" for resolving the Palestinian problem, has made a deal with Shimon Peres, leader of the opposition Labour party. The Labour is to join Sharon's Likud-led government, replacing other coalition partners.

Peres, who is in favour of accepting some of the rights of the Palestinian people, supports the unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and proposed resumption of negotiations with the Palestinians.

As veteran journalist Ian Black observes: "By joining Ariel Sharon's Likud-led coalition as deputy prime minister, Peres is showing that the majority of Israelis back the plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, remove its settlers and restart negotiations with the Palestinians.

"Peres's move illustrates the fact that four bloody years of armed intifada have destroyed the Israeli left but underlined the need to end the conflict. Arafat's death and replacement by the pragmatic Mahmoud Abbas is one reason things could improve -- not because Abbas will bend on the tough issues of borders, settlements and Jerusalem, but because he is likely to curb violence, embrace reform and win international backing to force Israel to accept a fair deal. Another reason is Sharon's conversion to the idea that Palestinians need their own state -- though exactly what it should consist of remains, crucially, to be agreed."

Stone wall

However, Sharon's Gaza plan is suspect. He is seen aiming at consolidating Israel's grip on the West Bank while abandoning Gaza, which has proved to be the most ungovernable occupied territory. By expanding Israeli presence in the West Bank, Sharon is seen as seeking to cut down the size of a future Palestinian state.

Confronted with that agenda, which includes a no-compromise stand over the vital issues of the right of the refugees and return of Arab East Jerusalem to the Palestinians, Abu Mazen or any other Palestinian leader elected on Jan.9 would be running into a stone wall.

At the same time, the election itself would add international legitimacy to the elected president's status as the leader of his people, something that Sharon would find hard to reject or brush aside.

Add to the equation, US President George Bush's declaration that he would spend his "political capital" that he seems to have gained by the re-election to find an end to the Palestinian problem.

If Bush were to use a way out of the inevitable Israeli-engineered pressure on him against endorsing the Palestinian rights in their truest form, then he does have the option of involving the European Union, the UN and Russia and pushing ahead the Quartet-backed roadmap for peace.

Sharon has said he endorses the roadmap for peace, but subject to 14 amendments disguised as "reservations."

These include:

* Calm will be a condition for the start and continuation of the process. The Palestinians must end "violence," dismantle security organisations and form new organisations to combat "violence." In the first phase, and as a condition for progress to the second phase, the Palestinians will dismantle resistance groups and their infrastructure and collect all illegal weapons.

* Full compliance will be a condition for progress between phases of the plan and for progress within the phases. The first condition for progress will be the full cessation of "violence."

* A new, different PNA leadership must emerge through reform before the second phase. This demand would be met on June 9. New elections must be held to the Palestinian Legislative Council.

* The monitoring mechanism will be under US management.

* The nature of the provisional Palestinian state will be determined at Israeli-Palestinian talks. The provisional state will be fully demilitarised with no military forces. Israel will control all entry and exit, as well as air space.

* The state must make declarations on Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state and on the waiver of any right of return for Palestinian refugees to what is now the state of Israel.

* The end of the process will lead to the end of all claims as well as the end of the conflict.

* A settlement will be reached through agreement and direct negotiations in accordance with the vision outlined by Bush in a speech on June 24, 2003. (In that speech, Bush said: "I call on the Palestinian people to elect new leaders, leaders not compromised by terror. I call upon them to build a practising democracy, based on tolerance and liberty. If the Palestinian people actively pursue these goals, America and the world will actively support their efforts. If the Palestinian people meet these goals, they will be able to reach agreement with Israel and Egypt and Jordan on security and other arrangements for independence. And when the Palestinian people have new leaders, new institutions and new security arrangements with their neighbours, the United States of America will support the creation of a Palestinian state whose borders and certain aspects of its sovereignty will be provisional until resolved as part of a final settlement in the Middle East).

* Issues that will not be discussed include Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, except a freeze on settlement expansion and illegal outposts, the status of the PNA and its institutions in occupied Jerusalem, and issues that will be part of a final peace agreement.

* The removal of references to a Saudi peace plan and an Arab initiative adopted in Beirut in 2003.

* The reform process will be promoted in the PNA -- a transitional Palestinian constitution will be drafted, a Palestinian legal infrastructure will be built, international efforts to rehabilitate the Palestinian economy will continue, and transfer of tax revenues will continue.

* The redeployment of Israeli forces to positions they held in September 2000 before the Palestinian uprising began will depend on absolute quiet and future circumstances.

* Subject to "security" conditions, Israel will work to restore Palestinian life to normal, promote the economy, cultivate commercial ties and assist humanitarian agencies.

* Arab countries will assist the process by condemning "violence." No link will be established between the Palestinian track and other peace tracks.

As is obvious, these "reservations" are "loaded" since most of them are vaguely outlined, obviously with a view to allowing interpretations in Israel's own way.

And that is where the catch is.