Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Tough choices and high prices

Aug.12 2008

Tough choices and high prices


THE outbreak of the Russian-Georgian War over South Ossetia has led to an unexpected problem for the US in Iraq. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has announced the recall of the country's entire contingent in Iraq to return home to fight against Russia. The Georgian government has also requested the US government airlift the roughly 2,000 Georgian soldiers out of Iraq to Georgia.
Under normal conditions, the departure of 2,000 Georgian soldiers should not make much of a dent on the nearly 170,000-strong US-led coalition force in Iraq, but there are other factors that need close consideration.
The Georgian troops are based in provinces in Iraq, where they have been preventing Shiite militiamen from smuggling arms in from Iran. Their depature would create a vacuum for the US military since the Iraqi army certainly could not be counted on to take up their work (if only because most of the Iraqi army soldiers have come Shiite militias with close links to Iran).
The US does have the option to send 2,000 of its own soldiers to replace the Georgians, but that would be a break from the US practice of not posting American soldiers near the Iranian border where they could be exposed to more danger and risk than other areas of Iraq. They would be easy targets for guerrillas who are highly skilled in moving around the border area without attracting attention.
And if the US were to oblige Saakashvili by airlifting the 2000 Georgians to fight Russian soldiers in South Ossetia, then it risks the ire of Mosow, which would only see the move as unfriendly on the part of Washington.
On the other hand, the fighting skills that the Georgian troops gained while in Iraq are deemed very important in the task that face them in South Ossetia. Their combat experience and US training single them out as the best in the Georgian army, and Saakashvili is unlikely to be persuaded to drop his demand that they be sent home from Iraq.
Obviously, the Bush administration is trying a balancing trick, with on the one hand, its delicate relationship with Russia, and on the other, its relationship with Georgia.
Of course, the more Georgia, which wants to become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), moves towards the US orbit, the more strained its relations with Russia.
The US military and political establishment should not but be aware of the military and political impact of a Georgian departure from Iraq. And it is unlikely that Georgia could be persuaded to send them back to Iraq after some form of solution has been found to the Russian-Georgian conflict. As such, Washington might try its hand in finding common ground that could end the military conflict in South Ossetia and thus an abrogation of Saakashvili's orders from the Georgians to return home from Iraq. The price the US might be asked to pay for Russian acceptance of a compromise could be compliance with a demand that it withdraw its support for American and Israeli companies which are seeking to reroute the flow of regional gas and oil away from Russia. Will it be worth it?