Sunday, July 25, 2004

Iran linked to 9/11?

July 25 2004

Iran linked to 9/11?

BY PV VIVEKANAND

The US has set Iran in its gunsights for "regime change" and Tehran would be hard pressed escape the trap. That is what has emerged from the US independent commission's finding that Iran had allowed eight to 10 of the Sept.11 suicide hijackers to pass through its territory months before the actual assaults and made sure their passports were not stamped with any record of the transit.
American pundits on both sides of the fence — those who opposed and favoured the war on Iraq — are now arguing that the US targeted the wrong country for regime change since the report indicates that Tehran was closer to Al Qaeda than Baghdad.
According to the commission, intelligence findings show that the Iranian government had instructed its border posts not to stamp the passports of Al Qaeda members from Saudi Arabia who were passing through Iran after training at Osama Bin Laden's camps in Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda operatives had freedom to cross between the two countries without any hindrance, the report asserts.
If the hijackers had Iranian entry stamp on passport they would have been subjected to strict questioning at any port of entry to the US and probably turned away.
The commission said that Osama Bin Laden's "representatives and Iranian officials had discussed putting aside Shiite-Sunni divisions to co-operate against the common enemy" and that a small group of A Qaeda members "subsequently travelled to Iran and Hizbollah camps in Lebanon for training in explosives, intelligence and security."
Iran has not denied the possibility that the suicide skyjackers passed through its territory and has cited in its defence the commission's finding that there was no evidence that Tehran was a party to the Sept.11 assaults or had known about them in advance.
Tehran has also rejected as unfounded American charges that it is sheltering Al Qaeda and Taliban fugitives who fled Afghanistan when the US invaded that country in late 2001 and that they include eight prominent Al Qaeda and Taliban figures remain in Iran, including Osama Bin Laden's son Saad and Saif Al Adel, once Al Qaeda's security chief.
They are supposedly kept under "protective custody" and it is thought that Iran might use them as pawns in dealings with the US.
The next scenario is predictable: US intelligence agencies coming up with evidence suggesting that Iran did know of Al Qaeda plans and was working in cahoots with Osama Bin Laden's group. It would take some time, but it is definitely coming.
There is already a move in Congress to produce legislation backing “regime change” in Iran.
US President George W. Bush, who labelled Iran part of an "exis of evil" along with Iraq and North Korea, has vowed that he is committed to regime change in Tehran would orchestrate it if he is re-elected in November. That is a very calculated statement. One could expect more "revelations" of the purported Iranian-Qaeda links in the months in the run-up to the first Tuesday of November when the Americans go to the polls but little action on the ground until then except stepped up pressure on Tehran.
That is what Bush meant when he said last week: "We will continue to look and see if the Iranians were involved (in the Sept.11 attacks)… As to direct connections with Sept. 11, we’re digging into the facts to determine if there was one.”

Thorn on the side

Following the ouster of Saddam Hussein, the next thorn on the American and Israeli sides is indeed Iran, whose theocratic leadership refuses to accept American domination of the region and continues to pose a hurdle to Washington's drive for absolutely unchallenged supremacy.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his neo-conservative allies in Washington have been calling for "regime change" in Iran after Iraq.
Israel, which says it fears Iran is developing nuclear weapons that could be used against the Jewish state, is no doubt planning how to "take out" Iran's nuclear facilities. One of more Israeli submarines equipped with long-range missiles capable of hitting Iran's nuclear plants on the Gulf coast as well as deep inside the country are already patrolling the waters of the Arabian Sea.
But simply destroying Iran's nuclear facilities would not be enough for the US to remove the challenge it faces from Tehran. It needs to replace the theocrats in power with an "American-friendly" regime like the interim government it has installed in Baghdad.
The new regime in Tehran, under the American plans, will allow the US military to set up bases in Iran, abandon all ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons, reform its Islam, recognise Israel and will agree to be a US-Israeli dictated solution to the Middle East conflict.
However, a military approach along the lines of the Iraq invasion is not in the cards. After all, Iran is five times larger than Iraq and has 65 million people compared with 25 million Iraqis.
The Bush administration has already set the ground for the best option: Create internal troubles for the regime, build them up and turn them into an uprising against the government. Simultaneously, the US could intervene militarily to support the internal dissidents and finish the job of removing the regime from power.
Obviously, Washington strategists are betting that Iranian youth and students are discontented with the regime, which gives Muslim clerics too much influence over their lives, and the right assurances to them that the US is behind them in their drive to get rid of the mullahs would convince them to stage an uprising.
Towards this end, a US-based group of Iranians, including the son of the toppled Shah Pehlavi, has launched radio and television broadcasts aimed to incite the Iranians against the regime and American and allied agents are said to have penetrate Iranian groups inside the country.
Washington has also enlisted the help of Hossein Khomeini, grandson of the late Iranian patriarch, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Hossein Khomeini, who smuggled himself into Iraq and then visited the US without official approval before returning home last year, openly said he would favour an American military invasion of his country aimed at changing the clerical regime. He is said to have been placed under tight restrictions at home after his return home.
Hard-liners in the Bush camp who orchestrated the war against Iraq are sure to seize upon the Sept.11 commission's report and further strengthen the case of regime change for Iran In any event, Iran has emerged as a key behind-the-scene player in the invasion of Iraq. It is believed to have played a key role in creating "evidence" of weapons of mass destruction and fed it to anti-Saddam Ahmed Chalabi, who in turn furnished it to US intelligence agencies as well as the New York Times to build the case for war against Iraq.
(Chalabi is also accused of spying for Iran and tipping them off that US intelligence agencies were listening in to telephone conversations of Iranian leaders and notable others. That is deemed to have dealt a serious blow to American intelligence gathering on Iran).

'Natural course'

Since the US set the Taliban and Al Qaeda in its military sights following the Sept.11 attacks and fingered Iraq immediately after invading Afghanistan., it was clear that Iran and Syria were also listed for "regime change" although not necessarily in that order.
It is no coincidence that the next two US targets in the Middle East, Syria and Iran, are also among the most vocal against Israel just as Iraq under Saddam was. It is not simply a matter of convenience for the US that fundamental changes are made in these countries to remove the challenge to Israel if not to better suit the interests of Washington's sole "strategic ally" in the Middle East; it is indeed a policy objective just as the ouster of Saddam was.
Washington flirted with Syria in the early 90s because it suited US interests to do so but now Damascus has become more of a liability than an asset only because it insists on its rights and represents the toughest of all Arab parties on whom Israel wants to impose its version of peace.
Similarly, the US hoped it could do business with Iran when "moderate" Mohammed Khatami was elected president in 1997. However, those hopes failed to materialise in view of the "hard-line" religious establishment's grip on power on a parallel track with that of the government but with overriding authority.
Now that Khatami would soon step down after serving two terms, the US has little hopes that another "moderate" might take his place, and hence the recent posture that Washington had "given up" on Khatami.
Under the American view, the religious establishment's constitutional authority is too deep-rooted to be pried away through conventional political means adopted by political forces within the country. Again, in the US eyes, a "regime change" aiming at destroying the religious leaders' power is the order of the day in Iran.
Iran's support for Lebanon's Hizbollah and Palestinian groups is a constant source of concern for Israel, and, by extension, the US. Further compounding the concern are the advances that Iran has reportedly made in developing long-range missiles which could hit Israel, its acquisition of two Russian submarines and the ongoing construction of a nuclear power plant on the Gulf coast and the existence of two other nuclear facilities inland.


Bush's options

The revelations of the alleged Tehran-Qaeda collaboration places the Bush administration in a fresh bind. The link is far more firm than the discredited American claim that a senior Iraqi diplomat had met the leader of the Sept.11 suicide hijackers in Europe a few months before the air assaults in New York and Washington.
In recent months, the Washington strategists appeared to have set the Iranian file aside, focusing instead on ensuring that Bush wins re-election in November. However, they ensured that Tehran remained under international pressure by citing its alleged quest to develop nuclear weapons.
Furthermore, the Bush administration would not undertake another military adventure at this juncture, given the worsening crisis in post-Saddam Iraq and the growing belief among Americans that they were misled by their president and his aides into accepting military action against that country.
Obviously the purported Iran-Qaeda links would be sued to tighten the case against Iran — and also somehow dragging in Syria —  but stopping short of any action that would have a negative impact on his already sagging prospects for re-election. Action will come only if the American people find him fit for another four years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but what that would be is anyone's guess.

Thursday, July 22, 2004

Arafat faces multi-crises

July 22 2004

Arafat faces multi-crises
PV Vivekanand

THERE is a security crisis and there is a political crisis within the Palestinian ranks, but solving them would not advance the Palestinian dream of independence. Indeed, the crises facing Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat are indeed the worst he had to confront since he assumed the helm of his people's struggle for liberation. Unless he moved swiftly to contain the situation, it might be too late for not only his survival as the symbol of the Palestinian struggle, but also the very fate of that struggle itself, writes PV Vivekanand.
For the first time, elected representatives of the Palestinians are demanding that Arafat crack down on corruption in his foundering administration. It is all the more ironic that the charges of corruption has been levelled not against an elected government in a free and sovereign state, but against the leaders of a revolutionary liberation movement of a people who have made and are continuing to make sublime sacrifices for the cause and have paid the price in untold suffering for their resistance against foreign occupation of their land.
It is not easy for Arafat, who is under virtual house arrest at his headquarters in Ramallah, to fight corruption among the people around him; many of them rally behind him only because he has been keeping a blind eye to their corrupt practices, and many would simply drop him if he were to hold them accountable for their shady financial dealings.
Corruption took roots in the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) from the very beginning if only because of the absence of any mechanism for accountability. It was a one-man show of Arafat, who went around Arab countries and collected hundreds of millions of dollars in aid for his liberation movement. He never accounted for the money to the donors or perhaps he did not feel the need to do so since he, as the living symbol of the Palestinian struggle for independence, was beyond reproach.
Arafat was "politically" careful with the money; he supported Palestinian refugee families recommended by his Fateh group, the dominant of the eight factions that made up the PLO, and then was selective in sharing the funds with other PLO factions; those whose positions, decisions and moves suited his thinking and interests got paid and others did not. That was the way he ran the PLO. At the same time, no one had any accurate idea about the PLO finances, including whether part of the money was invested abroad as was widely held. However, Arafat has never been accused of stashing away money for himself. The criticism was always against the way he played politics with PLO funds.
A simple example of Arafat's selective approach was seen in mid-1991 when he instructed his diplomatic representative in Amman, Jordan, not to settle the hotel bills of the leader of a leftist faction who had criticised him publicly. The faction leader had to borrow money from his cousins and friends in order to check out of the hotel.
Another example was when it was rumoured that Arafat had nearly $1 billion in PLO accounts under his control shortly after he signed the Oslo agreements in 1993. That rumour, his critics say, was instigated by himself because he wanted PLO factions which opposed the Oslo accords to support him in expectation that he was able to administer five-year autonomy of the West Bank and Gaza pending final status negotiations as envisaged under the agreement.
When the international community pledged nearly $2.5 billion as aid for the Palestinians to build themselves an entity in the Gaza Strip and West Bank following the signing of the Oslo agreements, the first thing Arafat would have expected was a direct transfer of the money to a bank account he controls. It jolted him to realise that the donors wanted every penny of their money accounted for and appointed the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) as the authority to decide how and where the money should be spent. It needed preliminary, feasibility and project studies before the UNDP would release any money to any project, and even at that there was no guarantee that every approved project would be financed.
Arafat and his associates never recovered from the shock of having to argue their case for ever dollar to be spent on building the Palestinian society in such a manner that everyone stood to lose something by returning to armed struggle.
The Palestinian National Authority (PNA), which was set up in 1996, was all but bankrupt when it was launched. It did not have money to pay the salaries of its policemen. There was no trace of the hundreds of millions of dollars that were reportedly controlled by Arafat, who started pressing for money to administer the PNA and its various agencies.
On several occasions, world donors got together and produced extra money to pay for PNA administration and then told Arafat he'd have to manage himself.
There has never been any credible auditing of the accounts of the PNA. Critics say many of those around him siphoned off PNA money through inflated contracts.
The security crisis developed with a spate of kidnappings that prompted Arafat to replace a police commander. However, he had to back down when he wanted to appoint his nephew and had to reverse the decision the next day amid major protests that saw the PNA office in Gaza set ablaze,
On Tuesday, Nabil Amr, a strong critic of Arafat, was shot and wounded at his home further highlighting the security problem and heralding what many fear to be armed clashes among rival Palestinian factions.
On top of that came a demand by the Palestinian parliament that Arafat accept his prime minister's resignation and appoint a government empowered to carry out reforms.
It was the Arafat camp's resistance to demands that prompted Prime Minister Ahmed Qorei to resign.
The Palestinian parliament is demanding that Arafat appoint a government "capable of carrying out its responsibilities," meaning giving it power to implement reforms. Similar calls have already been made on Arafat by the European Union as well as the Egyptian government.
Qorei is staying on as caretaker prime minister after Arafat
refused his resignation.
Arafat has also been pressed into revamping his security agencies. He had as many as eight different agencies, again reflecting his style of "not putting all the eggs in one basket." Effectively, having that many agencies meant that he could one against another and be assured that there is no one in overall charge except himself. This week, he reduced the number of security agencies to three, but he insisted that the head of the services report to him rather than the prime minister.
Qorei is seen to be betting that Arafat will be so embarrassed by the second resignation of a prime minister in little more than a year that he will hand over him genuine authority over security as well as authority to implement reforms. Arafat remains resistant, but he might not be able to hold out for long since the peace process is all but collapsed and he is rejected as negotiating partner by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Arafat's critics say that his position in negotiations with Israel under the Olso agreements was weakened because of his preoccupation dealing with dissent in ranks and fighting down any challenge to his absolute leadership style.
Arafat, known as one of the smartest survivors of today's leaders of freedom struggles, has outlived many crises. However, this time around, he find himself in a much weakened position, with mounting pressure from all sides.
There are many who remain convinced that Arafat will come out of the present crises, but, given the realities on the ground in Palestine, that would not make prospects for peace any brighter since Sharon, backed by the US, is bent upon implementing his vision of a "disengagement" with the Palestinians but without giving the Palestinians their rights.
Sharon remains defiant against the July 9 International Court of Justice ruling as well a UN General Assembly resolution issued on Tuesday calling for the dismantling of the "security" wall that it is building in the West Bank.
“The construction of the wall being built by Israel, the occupying Power, in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including in and around East Jerusalem, and its associated régime, are contrary to international law," said the IJC.
“Israel is under an obligation to terminate its breaches of international law; it is under an obligation to cease forthwith the works of construction of the wall being built in the occupied Palestinian Territory, including in and around East Jerusalem, to dismantle forthwith the structure therein situated, and to repeal or render ineffective forthwith all legislative and regulatory acts relating thereto," it said. ,
“Israel is under an obligation to make reparation for all damage caused by the construction of the wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including in and around East Jerusalem," it said.
Israel had said even prior to the ruling that it would not abide by the court decision and it reiterated the same position and also rejected the UN General Assembly call.
Washington supports the Israeli position and that ends any debate over a realistic chance of Sharon being pressured into heeding the IJC and UN calls.
Sharon's defiance and his systematic elimination of Palestinian resistance leaders clearly indicate that there is little prospect for any meaningful negotiations for a peaceful settlements.
In order to pressure his international allies to continue to back him and pressure Israel into negotiations based on the internationally backed "road map" for peace, Arafat needs more credibility on the internal front and for that he needs to implement reforms.
The campaign for reform is led by a younger generation of Palestinians who are looking for results in their struggle against the Israeli occupation and who see the old guard as bogged down in corruption and rhetoric rather than action.
No one is denying that Arafat is the symbol of the struggle for liberation. It is his style of managing the struggle that has come under attack.
"The difference between Abu Ammar (Arafat) and myself is simple," veteran Palestinian leader George Habash once said. "Abu Ammar wants to become president of the state of Palestine while he is alive even if the state means enough land to stake down the Palestinian flag. I would be happy if my great grandson becomes a citizen of a free Palestine with all Palestinian rights restored even if it is 100 years from now."
No matter how one looks at the situation, Arafat is cornered. The question is: Will Arafat fight back from the corner still believing he would be able to impose himself on everyone or will be back down and accept the inevitability of reform that could only strengthen the cause and mission of his life?

Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Iraq hopes scaled down

July 21 2004

Iraq hopes diminish

pv vivekanand

Hopes that the transfer of power in Iraq to the interim government would reduce guerrilla attacks have been scaled down in the wake of an increase in bombings and ambushes against the US-led coalition soldiers and their Iraqi allies.
Reports drawn up by US intelligence agencies and the Defence Department now portray a dramatically different picture than earlier expectations that Iraqi resistance as well as militant attacks against the US-led forces would ebb away after the interim government took over on June 28.
The conclusion now is that as long as there is a flow of money and arms into Iraq, the attacks would continue and there is little the US military or the interim government could do to bring the situation under control without committing an additional 100,000 soldiers supported by an extra 100,000 Iraqi security men.
The US is reporteldy planning to increase the number of soldiers in Iraq by 10,000 to 15,000 reservists by the end of the year. Simulataneously, the interim government is also building its police force.
Even with the additional forces, it would take several months of a "no-holds-barred" crackdown in all parts of the country to restore any semblance of normalcy that would be conducive to conducting elections in January.. Such action means detention of tens of thousands for indefinite periods without trial.
The coalition forces are facing trouble on many fronts.
Saddam loyalists have assumed control of the town of Samarra spanning the Tigris River north of Baghdad. Taliban-style fighters have vowed a fight to death before they allow American forces to enter Fallujah west of Baghdad to search for "foreign fighters." The town of Ramadi is following the Falloujah example.
Moqtada Sadr's Mahdi Army soldiers are keeping their peace in southern towns, but the situation is so tense that troubles could break out at the first given chance.
The Kurds are in control of most of the north of Iraq and life is normal there.
Hardline militants of the Ansar Al Islam group, which was chased away from northern Iraq, are said to be regrouping on the Iranian side of the border in the north.
Basra in the south is booming with Iranian-controlled trade. And terrorised life is a feature of Baghdad in central Iraq.
Reports indicate that Samarra is controlled by remnants of Saddam's Republican Guards who have redonned their uniforms and are defhying the coalition forces and the US-supported Iraqi Civil Defence Corps.
They are successfully held off attempts by the US forces from patrolling the streets of the predominantly Sunni town since early July.
In Falloujah, a security force, also made up of remnants from Saddam's armed forces, is in charge, but it is working closely with Islamist forces from the town and is refusing to disarm them. American forces fear entering the town, but they do lob a few missiles off and on against suspected guerrilla hideouts. Such strikes are helping to fuel not only the anti-US sentiments but also rejection of the interim government's authority because the missile attacks are approved by Allawi.
The US military claims that supporters of Jordanian-born Islamist Abu Musab Al Zarqawi, who allegedly masterminded dozens of devastating attacks on civilian targets, are holed up in Falloujah.
In the south, Moqtada Sadr has instructed his Mahdi Army militia co-operate with the police in restoring order, but trouble could break out if the militiamen were to be asked to give up their weapons.
Iraqi police want the militiamen to surrender their weapons, but the Sadrists counter that they want the arms to fight and subdue people they describe as arms merchants and drug traffickers as well Sunni militants planning to create trouble.
In the north, Ansar Al Islam, made of Kurdish militants many of whom former trainees at Al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan, have set up a camp on the Iranian side of the border.
The group maintained a camp in the village of Tawela stradling the Iraqi-Iranian border in north Iraq before the war. During the war, pro-US Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) fighters supported by American air power attacked and destroyed the camp. Some Ansar fighters were arrested but the bulk of Ansar camp esidents managed to escape across the border to Iran.
According to eyewitness accounts, Iranian security officials allowed only the Ansar camp residents across the border and refused other Iraqis who tried to enter Iran fleeing from the American military assault.
And now the Ansar Al Islam members are regrouping and have set up camps at the foot of an Iranian mountain range in Baramawa village, 20 kilometres west of Mariwan, and Darbandi Dizly near Daranaxa village further to the west.
Their presence is a threat the PUK and the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) since Ansar Al Aslam opposed the PUK-KDP joint administration of autonomous Kurdistan in northern Iraq.
Ansar guerrillas have killed dozens of PUK members, including the "prime minister" of autonomous Kurdistan, who is now a vice-president in the interim government in Baghdad.

Worrying figures

The number of American soldiers killed in guerrilla attacks in the first 20 days of July is proportionately more than those who died in the entire month of June.
Statistics show that an average of two soldiers were killed every day in July from among the 160,000-strong coalition force (138,000 Americans and 22,000 allied soldiers); 38 have been killed between July 1 and July 20 compared with 42 in the month of June. However, the June figure was marked down from the 80 deaths in May and 135 in April.
More than 10,000 soldiers from the coalition were wounded since the war began, with more than 60 per cent of them unfit to be return to duty because of the severity of the injuries.
US officials had estimated that a maximum of 5,000 guerrillas falling under different groups — Saddam loyalists, Iraqi (Sunni and Shiite) opponents of the US role in Iraq and anti-American international jihadists — were active in Iraq. The figures were dramatically revised this month, with the total number of anti-US guerrillas from all groups estimated at more than 20,000.
The Americans and allied coalition forces are learning from their experience in Iraq how to deal with a guerrilla war, but the guerrillas are also perfecting their skills in mounting roadside bombings and suicide blasts as well as ambushes.
Large areas outside population centres are lawless, with not only guerrillas seeking targets but also hardcore bandits who rob anything and anyone entering their fiefdoms. The entire stretches of the highways running from Baghdad to the Jordanian and Syrian borders are no longer under the control of American or Iraqi government forces. Bandits roam the land and pick on anything that moves along those roads, witnesses have reported
An amnesty offered by the interim government is unlikely to draw in any sizeable number of fighters accepting it because assurances that they would be treated well sound hollow, given that Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is bringing back elements from the ousted Saddam Hussein regime known for their bruality and summary actions into the security forces and police.
Most worrying American strategists is what they see as the strong endurance power of Iraqis.
"The American planners did not take into consideration that Iraqis had lived under the tight UN sanctions for nearly 13 years and this has taught them to limit their needs," said a European expert. "There is no doubt that the US military and its coalition partners as well as the Iraqi security forces functioning under the interim government would have to double their numerical strength and also engage in a ruthless, all pervasive crackdown in order to check the resistance."
The pitfall in such an approach, the expert warned, is that the interim government and the coalition forces would alienate the Iraqi society further with arbitrary actions such as storming of homes, summary arrests, brutal interrogation methods, torture and detention without trial. Thousands of innoncents would be caught in the crossfire.
"The American and their Iraqi allies have a tiger by the tail," said the expert. "They cannot continue to take casualties at this rate but they cannot launch decisive action to stem the attacks without further fuelling the resistance while also drawing condemnation from the international community against what would be nothing but gross violations of human rights."
Allawi, who has set up a special agency to ferret out and eliminate the guerrillas, says that he has identified leaders of the resistance and his interim government is in a "dialogue" with them.
Obviously, the prime minister, a Shiite, is trying to convince the Sunni tribal leaders who fear that the majority Shiites would dominate the Sunnis in post-Saddam Iraq that they would not be victimised and their rights would be protected in a post-conflict Iraq. However, Allawi's assurances are set back by the firm positions adopted by the country's Shiite leaders, including Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani, who is sending out an impression from his southern powerbase that the Shiites are waiting for the elections to prove their clout in the country.

Tuesday, July 20, 2004

Uniting or dividing Iraqis?

July 20 2004

Uniting or dividing Iraqis"?

PV Vivekanand

The Iraqi National Convention, which is aimed at uniting Iraqis under the forerunner of a democratic umbrella, could turn to be a forum for dividing the people of the beleaguered country and deepen schisms between the ethnically diverse Iraqi society.
It is Iraqis' first experience in getting together with a view to interacting although the mandate of the conference is limited. At the same time, it could also be a stage for leaders of various religious, ethnic, social and political groupings to meet and discuss the situation in the country after the ouster of the Saddam Hussein regime.
Never before in recent history have the Iraqis been afforded an opportunity to attend a national conference where they could air their views without fear. "National conferences" were indeed held during the Saddam regime, but they inevitably tended to be forums to heap praise on Saddam and his government. Anyone who dared to criticise the regime risked his life. Therefore the upcoming convention should indeed be considered as a historic opportunity for the people of Iraq to start having a say in their affairs.
However, as reports from Baghdad indicate, politicians— mostly exiles who returned home after Saddam was ousted last year —  have already hijacked the event. But then, that is the way politics work and first-time experiments could not be expected to work out perfectly, say the organisers of the forum.
The conference is an idea of the United Nations. Lakhdar Ibrahimi, the then UN special envoy to Iraq, worked out the details. He proposed that 1,000 people representing all religions, sects, tribes, and social and political groups as well as academics attend the conference and select 100 from among the participants to form an interim assembly.
The structure of the conference as well as the interim assembly proposed by Ibrahimi would have ensured a fair and just balance based on Iraq's ethnic diversities. However, that structure is deemed to have been undermined by now.
According to Jawadat Al Obeidi, secretary-general of the Iraqi Democratic Congress, a group which includes 216 Iraqi political parties, "gifted and honest Iraqi personalities" have been sidelined and their efforts to attend the conference were stonewalled by members of the Supreme Commission for the Preparation of the National Conference.
The interim assembly will act as parliament and will advise the interim government headed by President Ghazi Al Yawar and Prime Minister Iyad Allawi which took office on June 28.
It will have the authority to veto legislation and appoint alternate ministers and could replace the president and vice-presidents, the prime ministers and cabinet members in the event of death. The assembly will also determine the country's budget for 2005 and draft Iraq's constitution.
Security is indeed an issue for the conference and guerrillas who oppose the US-backed process have stepped up their attacks. As of Wednesday, even the venue of the conference remained a closely guarded secret.
Twenty-one of the 100 seats are already "gone" — taken over by 20 members of the now dissolved interim governing council and Fuad Masoum, a Kurd who is in charge of convening the meeting. Only Iyad Allawi, the interim prime minister, and four other members of the defunct governing council who joined the interim cabinet opted not to "reserve" seats for themselves in the assembly.
Apart from sealing their seats, the 20 others have also staked claims for their allies and cronies in the assembly, meaning that the bulk of the rest of the seats — 79 — have already been spoken for. As such, critics argue that the meeting, which begins on Saturday, will be nothing but a stage-managed event where many aspiring Iraqi politicians would find they are destined to be left out, and many have already announced they would not be attending the forum. Some of them have said they do not want to be part of a conference that is being "arranged" by the "occupation" since they do not recognise the transfer of sovereignty to the interim government by the US and continue to consider the country as occupied by the US-led coalition forces.
On the other hand, signs of a Shiite effort to dominate the conference and the assembly itself have emerged. Leading that effort is said to be Chalabi, a one-time American favourite as Saddam Hussein's successor in post-war Iraq.
Chalabi, who fell out with the Americans over charges that he misled the US on Saddam's alleged weapons stockpile, misappropriated American funds granted for spying and provided confidential intelligence information to Iran, has definitely groped his way back to a position of influence with or without American help.
He is a member of the Supreme Commission for the Preparation of the National Conference.
Reports indicate that he, with help from an umbrella group representing Shiites, has made sure that a significant number of the 1,000 people being asked to attend the conference are his people. So have a few other "influential" former members of the interim governing council, reports say.
In principle, the Iraqi conference should be be structured along the Afghan loya jiga model and attended by tribal leaders, academics, scholars, intellectuals, youth delegates, artists, writers, poets, leaders of professional associations and unions and religous leaders.
Around 550 of the 1,000 participants in the convention will be representatives of Iraq's 17 provinces and about 350 will be representatives of political parties, religious, tribal and nongovernmental groups, and "high-profile personalities." Twenty-five per cent should be women.
Political and ethnic power struggles characterised the selection of representatives from the provinces. Christians are given three seats, but they are demanding another two. Yazidis, Assyrians and other minority groups are complaining of low representation for themselves.
Motqada Sadr, the firebrand Shiite leader based in Najaf, has boycotted the process.
Sunnis from central Iraq complain that they have not been given the opporunity to select their "genuine represenatives." The Muslim Clerics' Association, a mainstream Sunni religious group, has also said it will not take part in the conference.
The Sunnis as well as many Shiites say it is meaningless to attend an event whose conclusion has already been determined.
According to reports, it is only a formality that it would be announced at the conference that Sharif Ali Bin Al Hussein, a descendent of the Hashemite royal family which was toppled in 1958, will be the speaker of the Interim National Council in a move arranged by Paul Bremer, the US viceroy who left Iraq on June 28 after handing over "sovereignty" to the interim government.
It is "arrangements" like these that have upset many. They might agree that Sharif Ali is the right candidate for the job, but they oppose the idea that the US has already made all the decisions to be taken at the conference.
Prominent intellectuals and leaders upstart political parties have declined invitations to attend the conference. They say their presence will only be used to legitimise what they see as an illegitimate process.
"We won't give them the legitimacy of our participation," Sheikh Jawad Khalisi, an influential Shiite Muslim cleric, was quoted as saying by the Los Angeles Times.
Khalisi is part of an alliance of Shiite, Sunni Muslim and Christian leaders and prominent academics who include Baghdad University political science professor Wamidh Namdi and Sheihk Harith Dhari, a powerful Sunni imam, said the paper.
"Every country that has been occupied throughout history has had some of its sons who cooperated with the occupation and some of its sons who resisted the occupation. We're choosing to resist," Khalisi said.
Nadhmi recently told the Washington Post that he and seven others declined to attend the conference: "We are not going to be used to give legitimacy to a constitution or a committee which has been, directly or indirectly, appointed by the occupation."
Ibrahimi, the erstwhile UN envoy to Iraq, had prepared a list of names of participants. Chalabi, reports say, cited secret files his people have took away from the former government's offices that show that some of the Ibrahimi nominees nominees had close ties with the Saddam regime; that made sure they were excluded.
Despite the divisions and schisms, there is no doubt that the convention is the first step for national interaction among Iraqis in the post-Saddam era. Many in the region feel that the process should have been more transparent with a view to bringing to the fore the diverse ideas and convictions of the people of Iraq rather than being set off in a direction where decisions designed to serve external interests are likely to be imposed on the very people who have to live with those decisions.

Wednesday, July 07, 2004

Allawi signs emergency law






PV Vivekanand

Iraq's interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi
has signed into law sweeping new emergency security
measures aimed at fighting the raging guerrilla war
against US-led coalition forces and their Iraqi
allies.
The law called National Safety Law gives Allawi the
power to declare martial law and a state of
emergency, issue arrest warrants, impose curfews,
arrest suspects, ban associations, restrict movement
of foreigners, bar demonstrations, and open mail and
tap telephones.The measures will be temporary and will
apply only in parts of Iraq.
The state of emergency cannot extend past 60 days and
must be dissolved as soon as the danger has ended,
but it can be renewed every 30 days, with a letter of
approval by the prime minister and the president and
deputy presidents. The same applies to curfews, which
could be imposed for limited periods of time in
limited areas.
The law grants Allawi the right to declare emergency
law in "any area of Iraq where people face a threat
to the lives of its citizen because of some people's
permanent violent campaign to prevent the creation of
a government that represents all Iraqis."
Effectively, it changes little on the ground since the
same measures were adopted by the US-led occupation
forces which handed over sovereignty to the interim
government on June 28.
UN Security Council Resolution 1546 of June 8 still
grants the American military many powers to introduce
those measures if it finds fit to do so.
The law is the first concrete move Allawi adopted
after taking over from the US-led forces, which remain
the country to ensure security.
Under the new law, courts would stay open seven days a
week to ensure the interior ministry and police could
obtain arrest warrants.
The government is also expected to announce an
amnesty for those insurgents not directly involved in
guerrilla attacks.
The widely anticipated National Safety Law, which
draws heavily from legislation in force during the
Saddam Hussein reign, had been delayed several times
as the government finalised the details and consulted
with American officials.
The law represents a forceful response to ther
tenacious insurgency and lays the groundwork for a
forceful response to civil unrest. The law was written
with the input of lawyers and the ministers of justice
and of human rights.
Allawi's government has said it also plans to restore
the death penalty, which was suspended during the US
occupation authority's reign that ended on June 28,
but the new law does not contain any reference to it.
Allawi, in interview with a Spanish paper, said on
Wednesday: "We want a restricted death penalty, for a
limited time, until there are elections and Iraqis can
decide for themselves.
He said the interim government had not yet made a
decision on how the death penalty should be
implemented.
The National Safety Law says the prime minister has
the right to "impose restrictions on the freedoms of
citizens or foreigners in Iraq" in the event of a
"dangerous threat" or "the occurrence of armed
instability that threatens state institutions or its
infrastructure."
The prime minister also has the power to take direct
control of all security and intelligence forces in the
area under emergency rule. He can also "appoint a
military or civilian commander to assume
administration of an emergency area" with the help of
an emergency force, as long as the president approves
it."
Restrictions that the prime minister could order
include banning of travel, group meetings and the
possession of weapons.
The law allows for the detention of "those suspicious
by their behaviour and to search them or search their
homes and places of employment and to impose mandatory
residence upon them."
The law states that a 100-member interim national
assembly expected to be formed later this month could
oversee how the law is enforced.
The prime minister's decisions under emergency rule
are subject to the review of the court of appeals,
which can cancel the decisions. The law forbids the
prime minister to cancel the transitional
administrative law during a state of emergency. The
law was signed by American administrators and Iraqi
Governing Council members in early March and functions
as an interim constitution.
.The law prevents the prime minister from exercising
martial powers in the region of Kurdistan without
consulting officials there.
Human Rights Minister Bakhityar Amin said the new law
was an absolute necessity.
"The lives of the Iraqi people are in danger, they are
in danger from evil forces, from gangs from
terrorists," he said. Amin compared the law to the US
Patriot Act.
Justice Minister Malik Dohan Al Hassan said the
premier would need to get warrants from an Iraqi court
before he could take each step.
"We realise this law might restrict some liberties,
but there are a number of guarantees," Hassan said.
"We have tried to guarantee justice and also to
guarantee human rights."
However, the law was needed to combat the insurgents
who are "preventing government employees from
attending their jobs, preventing foreign workers from
entering the country to help rebuild Iraq and in
general trying to derail general elections," he said.

Amin said the human rights and justice ministries will
form a joint body to monitor all areas where the
emergency laws are declared and investigate any
allegations of human rights violations.
Hassan said that in case Iraqi forces are unable to
perform their tasks or are overwhelmed, the Iraqis
"will request the assistance of foreign forces."
A senior US military official speaking on condition of
anonymity, said the Americans believe the new law will
not detract from the efforts of coalition forces here.
"We'll still be able to go out and do our mission,"
the official said. "There may be a requirement or
need for increase of co-ordination with specific rules
and specific measures that are going to be put in
place by the Iraqi government."
The emergency law had been expected to include a
provision providing amnesty for guerrillas who fought
the Americans before the June 28 sovereignty transfer
because their actions were legitimate acts of
resistance.
Amin, the human rights minister, said the amnesty was
still under discussion and "will be issued soon, as
soon as it's approved by the cabinet and presidential
council."

Tuesday, July 06, 2004

Sex racket in Dubai

Two girls from Kerala who escaped from the
clutches of flesh-traders have unearthed organised
gangs involving Keralites luring girls from the
southern Indian state to the UAE with job offers and
then forcing them into prostitution.
The two separate cases have prompted Indian consulate
officials in Dubai to caution Indian women travelling
alone to anywhere in the Gulf on visit visas or
employment visas given to them by unknown parties
should verify the authenticity of the sponsor or
arrange to have a relative or a friend or someone
deemed reliable to receive them upon arrival.
It was always known that there were Keralite girls in
Dubai engaged in prostitution in small discreet, one-
or two-bedroom apartments in places like Deira, Bur
Dubai and Karama. However, it is the first time that
two of them have managed to escape and recounted
stories of how they were brought to the UAE on visit
was — with promises of employment —  and then whisked
away from the airport to virtual bondage and pressed
into the oldest profession against their will.
Rajni, 25, (name changed) from central Kerala, is a
graduate in hotel management. She was working in
Bangalore, but tensions within the family prompted her
to take up what then appeared to be a "chance" offer
of employment in the UAE. She came to Dubai and was
picked up from the airport and driven to what she
learnt later was "the godown" — a place where girls
like her are told that their job is to sexually
entertain "clients."
The process of turning girls like Rajani into
prostitutes is known in the trade as "training" and
involved other Keralite women who are either already
in the trade or arrange "clients" for prostitutes and
take a commission.
Rajni refused, and next thing she knew was she was
raped and severely beaten up. She was locked up in a
room and denied food and water for several days until
she agreed to engage in prostitution.
All her "operators" as well as "clients" were from
Kerala.
Whenever she refused to "co-operate" she was beaten up
and starved. After a few days, she was being moved
from apartment to apartment at three-day or four-day
intervals.
She was kept under constant watch and was not allowed
to contact her family except on certain days when she
was handed a mobile phone and permitted to speak a few
words of pleasantries and niceties.
It took her more than three months to find a
"sympathetic client" — again, a Keralite — who agreed
to help her.
Rajni managed her escape while she was being moved
from one apartment to another in a taxi. She contacted
the man who promised to help her and she ended up at
a centre run by the Indian Welfare Association from
where she was flown home last week after the consulate
here issued her an outpass (since her passport was
held by her "operator") air passage provided by
well-wishing donors.
Chandni, 30, (name changed) a divorced mother of three
children, came to Dubai to work as a housemaid but on
a visit visa and ended up "entertaining" men.
After several weeks of an ordeal very similar to
Rajni, Chandni, with help from a "client," fled from
her "operator." However, her problems did not end
there. Her "operator" threatened the man who helped
her and took from him 7,000 dirhams in order to
"release" Chandni.
Chandni flew home on Monday.
These two cases are only the tip of an iceberg, by
most accounts.
Sources familiar with the racket say that a dozen or
so men and women are at its helm and they have
"agents" throughout Kerala always on the lookout for
vulnerable women — divorcees, those having serious
family problems, and those in financial crises — in
small villages and towns.
They approach such women with job offers in the Gulf
and the bait is easily swallowed, particularly that
the women are promised that they would be able to sent
home at least Rs15,000 a month.
Once they end up in the flesh trade here, they are
trapped. They cannot break away from from the gangs
and would not want to inform their family of the
reality of the situation — even if they had the
opportunity —  because of the social stigma.
According to the sources, there are several hundred
Keralite women who have been brought here and forces
into prostitution.
"Only a small percentage of them knew beforehand that
they would be working as prostitutes here," said one
source.



As more cases emerge of Keralite women being brought
to Dubai on promises of employment and forced into
prostitution, police sources say they are unable to
act against the culprits in the absence of specific
complaints.
"We take immediate and stern action whenever a
complaint is filed," said a source. "We cannot act
based on generalities or media reports."
Wherever specifics are brought to their attention, the
immigration authorities conduct raids and detain
suspects on charges of violating immigration laws,
which is a regular feature in most cases, according to
the sources.
In the cases of Rajni and Chandni, complaints were
filed and those involved have been detained pending
prosecution.
An Indian source familiar with the approach of the
immigration authorities revealed several recent cases,
all of them involving only Keralites.
One of them involved a former employee of the defence
department who was engaged in strong-arm tactics. The
man used proxies to procure Keralite girls engaged in
prostitution and keep them as hostages in areas
outside Dubai. Other proxies will then inform the
"operator" of the girls that the issue could be
settled if the man was named as mediator.
The "mediator" then acts on behalf of the operator to
secure the release of the girls on payment of several
thousand dirhams, with no one suspecting him to be the
real culprit. Inevitably, the girls were sent back to
the "operator."
"He continued for some time and made some big money,
but then the authorities caught him on a specific
complaint some eight weeks ago," said the Indian
source. "He was found to have violated immigration
laws and was deported, with a ban on re-entry for one
year.
"However, the authorities found out that the man had
returned carrying a different passport after three
weeks. Apparently he sneaked back through Buraimi (in
Oman on the border of Al Ain, but administered by the
UAE).
"The man went underground when he suspected that he
was being hunted and spread word that he left the
country, but the authorities know that he is still
around and they are determined to nab him," said the
source.
During a recent raid of an apartment where 10 Russian
and two Indian girls were found engaged in
prostitution, a man who stood guard at the door jumped
down from the fourth-floor and injured himself. The
youth turned out to be the first man's nephew."
In another case, a middle-aged man was found to have
brought his 20-year-old unmarried niece to Dubai and
handed her over to flesh traders. The reason: He was
settling a score with his sister, the girl's mother,
in a dispute over property.
The authorities caught him and deported him on
immigration charges when the girl filed a complaint.
Rates for the girls range from 50 dirhams for a
one-time engagement upwards depending on a
classification of "regulars," "newcomers," "VIP," and
"VVIP" commanding up to 1,000 dirhams for a night.
"The charges are split among several parties, with the
girl getting less than 15 or 10 per cent," according
to the source. "For example, she might get 10 dirhams
from the 50 dirhams a customer paid. If she is lucky,
she might get some tip from the client."
Another case involved a young Keralite girl settled in
Tamil Nadu brought her as employed as an office
executive. Things went well for several weeks before
she was confronted by the Keralite manager who accused
her of being responsible for the company's alleged
loss of tens of thousands of dirhams. She was told she
had to make good the loss or be ready to go to prison
for at least two years. The third alternative:
"Entertain" some of the company's "clients."
Several weeks later, the girl found herself unable to
do anything but to continue to have sex with dozens of
"clients" everyday from a two-bedroom apartment in
Deira. She has by now realised the company, her
employment and the company's losses were all stage
managed into trapping her.
Now she does not want to go back home. "All I want is
to make enough money for me to buy a small house
somewhere far away from my family and settle down
there," she says. "I can't face my family." Shoba (not
real name), 31, a widowed mother of two from a village
near Trichur, recalls that she was brought here three
years ago to work a housemaid. "I was taken to an
apartment in Dubai and told my job was to sleep with
men," she said. "I refused, and they locked me up and
starved me for more than two weeks and regularly beat
me up until I lost my ability to resist and agreed to
whatever they told me to do."
Shoba was rescued by a Keralite customer, who paid her
"operator" 11,000 dirhams for her "release." Prakash
(not real name) married her. Subsequently, he lost his
job and he had no option but to draw from his
experience and that of his wife Shoba to run a
brothel themselves.
However, they swore that they never brought any girl
to the UAE to work as a prostitute.
"We just used our apartment for clients to have sex
with girls, who were sent her as a regular rotation by
other operators with whom we had an understanding,"
said Prakash in a conversation before he and Shoba
left the UAE two months ago. "We used to make 300 to
400 dirhams every day."
For those Malayalis who might take a fancy to any of
the girls and want her as a discreet "keep" and could
afford to pay, the charge for her to be "released"
from the bondage of her "operator" is anywhere upwards
of 15,000 dirhams in cash. Then she, her maintenance
and legal status and whatever else become his
responsibility.

Sept.14

DUBAI: A 23-year-old girl from Kerala who paid a hefty
amount to her friend's mother for what she thought was
an employment visa in the UAE was on her back home on
Tuesday after she escaped from a group of flesh
traders, also from Kerala.
It was the latest case of rescue of Keralite girls
lured to the UAE with job offers and then forced into
prostitution by organised Keralite syndicates. Four
such girls were rescued and sent home in the last
three weeks.
Several more are waiting for immigration clearance for
their temporary outpasses — since their passports were
taken away from them immediately after they landed at
the airport by the persons who brought them here in
the first place.
Reports of the cases have emboldened many who know of
similar others to contact media personnel as well as
the Indian consulate here with appeals for help.
Two of the girls who went back have spoken to
newspapers in Kerala of how they were "recruited" for
jobs with tempting salaries but turned into
prostitutes after they landed here.
The latest escapee, who hails from an impoverished
family from central Kerala, landed in Dubai on Sept.4
and taken to an apartment on the border between Dubai
and Sharjah.
The girl had discontinued a degree course in Kerala
after one year because of financial problems at home
and completed a course in computer applications.
She was contacted by the mother of one of her friends
offering the job of a "computer operator" in the UAE
in return for Rs75,000. Her family somehow raised the
money and paid the woman, who arranged a visit visa
for her and sent her here on a flight from Coimbatore.
Coimbatore is the take-off airport of choice of the
racketeers since immigration officers at Trivandrum,
Calicut and Cochin airports are deemed strict in
verifying the papers of women travelling alone to the
Gulf.
The girl was received by two men at Dubai airport and
taken to a flat situated opposite the sprawling Sahara
Shopping Mall on the line straddling the emirates of
Dubai and Sharjah. There were two other girls in the
flat and in a matter of hours she realised that she
had walked into a trap.
"I did not know what to do after the other girls told
me about their stories of how they ended up as virtual
slaves in custody and forced to become prostitutes,"
she recounted. "They told me how they were beaten up
mercilessly and starved when they refused to entertain
'clients', and kept that way until they agreed to do
whatever was asked of them," she said.
There were two men in the flat who were in charge of
the girls. One of them, named only as Satish, told the
newcomer to be "ready for the interview, but you know
by now what the interview will be."
"I lived in terror for the next two days during which
the other girls in the apartment were replaced," said
the girl. "Men used to come to the flat but someone
Satish or anyone else did not force me into anything."
On the second day, at around 8pm, she and other girl
were asked to dress up to go out. "We were brought
down by Satish and handed over to two men in a car,"
she said. "As the other girl got into the car, I
simply ran the other way thinking that even if I died
it would be better than what as awaiting me if I had
gotten into that car."
"I had no idea where I was running, but kept on going
and I almost bumped into a man who stopped and asked
me in English what the problem was, and I told him,
'please help me I am running away from someone'."
The man, Abdullah, a native of Andhra Pradesh,
appeared to have immediately understood the problem
and he helped her hide in a ditch for some time until
the hunt for her appeared to have died down.
Then Abdullah helped her up and took her to another
area in a taxi. During the ride she told him of her
story in bits and pieces of English, Hindi and Tamil.
She had — in fact that is what saved her — a slip of
paper with a telephone number of a friend of her
father, and Abdullah contacted that number and
checked. The man said he knew the girl and that he was
staying in the UAE with his wife and two children.
Abdullah asked the friend to come and take the girl
but on one condition: He had to bring his wife and
children. The man did and the girl was handed over to
the family.
The next day the girl contacted the Indian consulate
and was issued an outpass since she did not have her
passport (somehow she had the air ticket with the
return coupon in order). The consulate also issued a
letter to the local authorities that helped her clear
immigration procedures without having to produce her
passport.