Friday, February 15, 2002

American unilateralism

By declaring Iraq, Iran and North Korea the "axis of
evil," US President George W Bush appears to have
taken in more that Washington could chew by espousing
unilateralism that has alienated his European allies.
Since his state of the union address on Jan.29, Bush
has faced a barrage of criticism from Europeans, many
of whom outrightly rejected his clear pointer that the
next targets in the US-led war against terrorism were
Baghdad, Tehran and Pyongyang. They have warned that
Washington should not expect them to remain partners
in the coalition that backed the US campaign in
Afghanistan.
It was indeed clear for some time now that Bush would
be targeting Iraq and others in the US-led drive
against terrorism, particularly after he clarified
that he defined all countries which develop weapons of
mass destruction as supporters of terrorism. And his
Jan. 29 speech has come to be known was the Bush
doctrine, which is now challenged by his European
allies. And they have good reasons too.
In the case of Iraq, US intelligence agencies tried
hard but in vain to establish a link between Baghdad
and the Sept. 11 terror attacks in New York and
Washington. Reports that the man said to have been the
leader of the attacks had met with an Iraqi diplomat
in Eastern Europe in early 2001 have come to naught in
helping Washington establish a case against Baghdad.
That the US was paving the way for expanding the war
against terrorism was made clear in October when
Washington formally notified the United Nations that
it might target other countries in the war against
terrorism and senior Bush administration officials
mentioned Iraq as a potential target.
Since then, Arab leaders and the Arab League itself
have issued repeated warnings to the US against
launching military operations against Iraq or any
other Arab country in the name of the war against
terrorism.
Joining them were European leaders who had then used
diplomatic language to dissuade Washington from
pursuing a military assault against Iraq.
But last week, they were unambiguous, saying they want
nothing to do with such a course of action.
European Commission pokesman Gunnar Weigand said the
European Union leaders "do not agree with that kind of
policy."
While the EU shared American concerns over global
issues such as human rights, terrorism and
proliferation of weapons, the bloc does not "share is
the policy desired to achieve these objectives. We
believe that engagement and rapprochement...should be
used to achieve these aims."
Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy chief, called
on Washington to act multilaterally and not as a
"global unilateralist."
Surprisingly Germany had been in the forefront of
opposing military action against Iraq, and it left
nothing unsaid.
"We Europeans warn against it," said German Deputy
Foreign Minister Ludger Vollmer. "There is no
indication, no proof that Iraq is involved in the
terrorism we have been talking about for the last few
months... this terror argument cannot be used to
legitimise old enmities."
Vollmer could not have been more clear in referring to
the growing belief that the "axis of evil" charge is
the forerunner of a US drive to settle political
scores by destablising Iraq and indirectly topple the
regime of Saddam Hussein — an objective the US failed
to achieve in the 1991 Gulf war.
There is also a strong vein of thought in Europe, and
indeed in the Arab World, that the US focus on Iran as
a potential target in the war against terrorism has
more to do with Israeli interests than US policy and
the campagin against terror.
There is little doubt that Bush would find it
difficult to enlist European partners in military
action against Iraq or Iran.
Most EU member countries agree that the best approach
to solving the problem, if any at all, is through
dialogue in line with the European bloc's policy of
engaging with countries rather than seeking to isolate
them.
Even in Britain, the staunchest US ally in Europe, the
"axis of evil" comment has drawn dismay. Home
Secretary Jack Straw said the Bush assertion was aimed
at the American elecotrate ahead of the forthcoming
congressional elections and could not be part of a
military strategy.
Washington's frustration over the British stand was
spelt out by National Security Advisor Condoleezza
Rice. "This is not about American politics, and I
assume that when the British government speaks about
foreign policy, it's not about British politics," she
retorted to Straw.
But it should be dawning on Washington that it would
not be an easy go to secure international endorsement
of military action against Iraq or Iran.
Many countries, mindful of the oil reserves and trade
potential of the two countries, have set up strong
relations with them; in Iraq's case, business worth
tens of billions is waiting for an end to the
11-year-old UN sanctions against Baghdad. The
sanctions are already fraying, and it is only a matter
of time before few governments would think twice about
doing business with Iraq even if in violation of the
sanctions.
Indeed, there is strong European suspicion that it is
not simply "old enmities" at play in the US strategy
towards Iraq.
The Europeans are aware that Washington is unhappy
that they have made inroads and set up ground to do
post-sanctions trade with Iraq while American
businesses were restrained by the law of their country
from pursuing the same goal.
"By launching military action against Iraq, the US
would precipitate a major crisis that would upset the
European apple cart and bring new rules into play for
doing business with Iraq," commented an Asian
diplomat. "That would be the end of years of European
efforts to gain a firm foothold in that country."
If any consolation, there is consensus across the
Atlantic: Military action against Iraq would not be
limited to a few missile strikes or bombings against
strategic installations in that country –– it would
aim at replacing the Saddam Hussein regime in Baghdad,
and this would not be an easy task at all without
European support.
The European case against the US targeting Iran is
even stronger.
Europe has been closely observing the political
tug-of-war between the (relatively) moderate regime of
President Mohmmed Khatami and the conservative
theocratic establishment in Iran since 1997. They have
seen a slow shift to moderation in Tehran under
Khatami's leadership, and they would like to encourage
it.
Europeans are indeed aware of the clout that the
Iranian religious establishment wields, and they have
recognised that they should not expect miracles from
Khatami.
Many European diplomats believe that even if the
Israeli charge was true that Iran was behind a
recently intercepted arms shipment in the Red Sea, the
real "culprit" was not the Khatami government but
hardline elements in the clerical establishment in
Tehran.
In any event, the Europeans remain convinced that the
key to dealing with Iran is encouragement for the
"moderate" camp in Tehran rather than confrontation
over the US charge that Iran had links with Osama Bin
Laden's Al Qaeda group.
Europe recognises that Al Qaeda fighters fleeing US
forces in the Afghan war could have sneaked across the
border to Iran, but they believe Tehran should not be
seen as an Al Qaeda supporter.
They see the Iranian refusal to co-operate with the US
in countering Al Qaeda as stemming from Tehran's
conviction that such moves would allow Washignton to
exploit the situation and make intelligence inroads in
Iran.
"Tehran prefers to deal with the Al Qaeda problem, if
there is one, on its own," said a European diplomat.
"It wants no US role in the affair and is determined
to keep the US out. Sharing intelligence information
with the US is the last thing it wants to do."
Some speculate that the US frustration over its
failure to mend fences with Iran despite repeated
overtures to Tehran is also behind the hostility.
Washington has also charged that Iran was "meddling"
in the internal affairs of Afghanistan, an allegation
that both Tehran and Kabul have denied.
There is a strong Israeli angle to the US-Iran
equation, and Bush's "tough" posture might also have
to do with his desire to do away with a constant
source of "concern" for the US protege in the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon underlined it when
he said last week that "Iran calls for the destruction
of the state of Israel and elimination of the Jewish
people. That's why it was so important for President
Bush to name them as sponsors of terror."
It is no secret that Israel has seen in Iran a
potential threat in the event of a regional
conflagration. Israel has for long watched with
apprehension Iran aquiring and developing long-range
missiles and Tehran's nuclear programme.
Suggestions have remained alive for several years that
Israel might even launch "pre-emptive" strikes against
Iran's nuclear installations, which Tehran says are
intended for peaceful purposes, and other military
facilities.
Iran is a staunch supporter of the Lebanese resistance
movement Hizbollah, which managed to force Israel to
withdraw from parts of Lebanese territory in mid-2000
after many years of fighting the Israeli army and its
proxy forces in southern Lebanon.
Sharon has already picked up the fight against Iraq
and Iran. One of the items on the agenda for talks
between Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
in Washington on Thursday was expected to be Israel's
"fears" of the "threats" posed by Iraq and Iran to the
Jewish state.
Aides have said that Sharon would be lobbying Bush for
unspecified American action against Iran and iraq.
Russia has come out fighting from Iran's corner
against the US charge against Tehran.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov said on Sunday
that there was no evidence that Iran had connections
with terrorist organisations. He accused the US of
following double standards.
French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine warned that the
interests of the rest of the world were under threat
from a "simplistic" US foreign policy that emerged
after the Sept. 11 attacks. "Today we are threatened
by a simplism that reduces all the problems of the
world to the struggle against terrorism, and is not
properly thought through," said Vedrine.
Vedrine expressed criticism of the Bush doctrine, a
decision by Washington to subordinate all foreign
policy decisions to the needs of the "war against
terrorism," and of unilateralism in general.
He accused the US of acting "unilaterally, without
consulting others, taking decisions based on its own
view of the world and its own interests ... refusing
any multilateral negotiation that could limit their
decision-making, sovereignty and freedom of action."

According to Vedrine, said Europe also had a duty to
stand up to the US "hyper-power" over the
globalisation of the free market
French Defence Minister Alain Richard said France
would not follow Bush's example in vastly increasing
defence spending to cope with the new threats of the
post-Sept. 11 world.
"We do not share the analysis expressed by President
Bush on the threats to international peace and
security," he told the French parliament.
Against such opposition from the powerful European
bloc, will Bush go it alone?
There are some who suggest he might.
The technology that the US used in the Afghan war
established that the sole superpower
doesn't need its North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
(Nato) partners "to fight a distant war, as it
demonstrated in Afghanistan, where it basically won
alone, except for small but important contributions
from Britain, Canada and Australia," Thomas Friedman
wrote in the Guardian.
Friedman hammered home an emerging scenario where the
US might simply decide its interests were good enough
to launch military action wherever it found fit to do
so so -- with or without is Nato partners.
"We are increasingly heading for a military apartheid
within Nato: America will be the chef who decides the
menu and cooks all the great meals, and the Nato
allies will be the bus boys who stay around and clean
up the mess and keep the peace - indefinitely,"
according to Friedman.



_______________