Monday, March 03, 2003

Turkish Islamists and Iraq

by pv vivekanand

THE dominant Islamists of Turkey have taken a big political risk by voting in parliament against allowing American troops to deploy in Turkish territory to wage a war against Iraq. Obviously, the strategists in Washington might even be contemplating manipulating the US "connections" with the Turkish military into staging events that might see the demise of the Islamist domination of the Turkish parliament and create new realities in the country that would serve the pressing American need to have access to Turkish territory for military action against Iraq. US-engineered upheavals have been known to happen before and there is no reason not to rule it out this time around either.
The motion for approval for the Ankara-Washington deal was voted down in parliament by three votes after several members abstained and others conveniently stayed away from the session and spared themselves from answering their voters why they opted to support a war against a fellow Muslim country.
There is considerable opposition among Turks to a US-led war against Iraq since many see it was a campaign against Islam itself. Those sentiments have to seen against the decades of "discrimination" that Turks feel they were subjected to in the West coupled with post-Sept.11 events.
It is not simply the parliamentary rejection of an American military deployment in Turkey that should be irking Washington. It is the realisation that the politics of Turkey has changed dramatically after the election victory last year of the Justice and Development (AKP) party led by firebrand Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has made no secret of his distaste of his country's alliance with the West rather than its natural partners in the Arab and Muslim world.
At the same time, other AKP leaders, including the current prime minister Adullah Gul -- who is actually standing in for Erdogan until the latter wins a bye-election and qualifies to be prime minister -- are seen as a moderating factor.
The prospect of a war against Iraq has come to Turkey at a most inappropriate time for the Islamists, who, for the first time in the modern history of the country, have an absolute majority in parliament and need to consolidate their political grip through meeting the expectations of the electorate. Their agenda did not have any room for an external crisis interfering with their plans. Their pressing priority is to stabilise the internal front and consolidate their newfound status as the dominant political power in the coutnry.
They need a stable environment in order to achieve social and economic objectives that would endear them more to the voters. The crisis over Iraq was something they could have done very well without.
The Turkish military establishment, which has a record of intervening whenever serious political crises erupted, is watching from the wings, and many would not rule out that the generals could go into action if they felt that Ankara was going too far from its traditional relationship with Washington.
Analysts believe that many senior Turkish military generals have close affiliation with the US; many of them have undergone training in the US and feel close to the US military establishment; most of their weapons and equipment are supplied by the US; and some might even be outraged that the Islamist politicians are placing the relationship with the US on the firing line by denying Washington the much-needed military facility to wage a successful war against Iraq.
The first thought that occurred to many observers when the AKP won the elections last year was how the generals would take it. It was indeed a relief that the military relented and said the party had its backing to rule Turkey with the first wholly Islamist government. Since then it was generally been smooth sailing for the AKP, which went on to introduce legislative amendsments that allowed Erdogan to stand in elections. A by-poll is scheduled to be held on Sunday which is expected to see Erdogan entering parliament and take over premiership from Gul.
The election should be another irritating factor for the Americans since it has frozen any move by the government to put in a new request for parliament to take a new vote on the deployment of US troops in the country. A vote would not come before another two or three weeks in view of the government reshuffle that is expected to follow Erdogan's election.
There should have been many considerations behind the Gul goverment's failed move last week to secure parliamentary approval for US military deployment, and those considerations remain unchanged.
These include:
Turkey would definitely like to have a military say in northern Iraq because of fears that Iraqi Kurds could take control the oil-producing areas there and move towards declaring an independent state that would stir the Turkish Kurdish community.
Turkish politicians have been demanding that Ankara pre-empt such a move by seizing control of the oil regions of northern Iraq citing Ottoman territorial claims and the presence there of two million Turcomen -- Iraqis of Turkish origin.
Turkey's economy needs urgent infusion of funds. A deal made between Ankara and Washington would allow Ankara to get $6 billion immediately and up to $26 billion in credit facilities iin return for allowing Turkish territory to be used by the Americans to open a northern front against Saddam Hussein.
Under the Islamists, Turkey, which has come under criticism in the Arab World for the last 30 years for its ties with Israel, is hoping to signal a slow-down in its interaction with Israel and seek to strengthen its relationship with the Arab World. It has already sought an observer status in the Arab League.
Given the Arab and Muslim rejection of a regime change in Iraq through military means, Turkey has to be careful in its steps in the crisis.
Obviously, the Islamist government's decision to close the deal with the US was prompted by a calculation that business would be back as usual once the Iraqi crisis tides over with the ouster of the Saddam regime since it knows well that there is not much love lost for Saddam among Arab leaders. At the same time, Erdogan also faces the task of justifying his decision to the wider Islamic World.
Reminding Ankara of the pitfalls it faces in Iraq is the growing internal rejection of war against Iraq as well as the Iraqi Kurdish approach to the issue. Tousands of Iraqi Kurds who staged a protest against any deployment of Turkish troops in northern Iraq on Monday and burnt Turkish flags in front of the UN headquarters in Arbil.
Iraqi Kurds fear that the Turkish-US deal is at their expense although the political and military details of the accord have yet to be disclosed.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), one of the two dominant Iraqi Kurdish groups, has voiced fears that the deal gives Turkey the green light to pour in thousands of Turkish troops into northern Iraq. The KDP sees it as a betral of the Kurds and has vowed to fight the Turks if they enter the Kurdish enclave that is shared between the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The Kurdish distrust of Turkey was highlighted when Kurdish border guards prevented Turks from accompanying journalists and delegates who attended an Iraqi opposition conference in northern Iraq last week.
The uncertainty over Turkish approval of the deal has put American miltiary plans in disarray since use of Turkish territory is vital to success in the planned US war against Iraq. Senior US commanders have admitted as much and are seeking alternative plans to using Turkey.
However, denial of access to Turkish territory will cripple US plans to execute a "short war" to achieve its objectives in Iraq. Any prolonged conflict would only work against the carefully planned US scenario for a post-war Iraq.
As such, the angry response the Turkish parliament vote drew from Washington was understandable. It reflected the frustration of the American strategists who worked for more than three months to close the deal with Ankara.
However, those protests and words of condemnation would have little effect unless Erdogan streamlines his members of parliament and forces through an approval of the deal with the US before the delay throws a spanner in the US works. But then, Erdogan's priorities are too complex for a smooth process of a parliamentary approval of the deal in a new vote.
And that is why all eyes are on the options of the Turkish military generals.