Tuesday, July 29, 2008

No easy answers to impossible demands

July 29, 2008

No easy answers to impossible demands


Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani is under immense American pressure to move ruthlessly against his own people near the border with Afghanistan and allow foreign forces to operate out of Pakistani territory in the US-led "war against terror." But the pressure is not expected to produce the results that Washington desires because Gilani, representing a democratically elected government in a country that is trying to recover from the chaos of military rule, would not be able to deliver as demanded by the US. It would be political suicide for Gilani — or any other Pakistani politician for that matter — to hop on the US-led bandwagon in Washington's self-declared "war against terror." This reality was emphasised by the results of a poll conducted by the US-based International Republican Institute last month that Pakistanis overwhelmingly back the Gilani government's policy of favouring negotiations over military action.
Even military ruler General Pervez Musharraf, who was not bound by the imperatives of a politician in a democratic society, was careful not to go too far in his alliance with the US in the "war against terror." However, that did not stop Pakistanis from blaming the Afghanistan war and Musharraf's co-operation with the US for extremist attacks last year that killed more than 2,000 people.
Gilani's move on Sunday to take over control of the country's intelligence agencies is linked to the US pressure since the organisations are accused of involving themselves in the insurgency in Afghanistan. But that is not enough for the administration of George W Bush, who wants a no-holds-barred co-operation from Pakistan in its fight against militants.
The key point for the US is Taliban and Al Qaeda attacks in Afghanistan and the movement of militants from Pakistan across the border to Afghanistan. Surely, that point is coupled with an implied threat that the US is prepared to launch military "hot pursuit" raids into Pakistan's troubled tribal belt in pursuit of extremists.
Was it a pure accident that a suspected US missile strike on a Pakistani madrasa killed six people in a border town hours before Gilani was due to meet President George W. Bush in Washington on Monday?
Gilani did try to send a strong political message to Bush before Monday's meeting at the White House when he told the media that "it is in the interest of Pakistan to curb extremism and terrorism."
But such statements matter little to the US administration, which wants unfettered access and right of military action as it finds fit in Pakistani territory even it means the death and injury of hundreds of civilians living in the Pakistan-Afghanistan tribal belt and untold damages to property. Washington could not be bothered to give any consideration to the political compulsions of the Gilani government as long as Islamabad is able to suppress popular sentiments, even through the use of military force if warranted.
Surely, Gilani finds himself hemmed in from all sides and has to come up with some fast answers. But the answers and actions that the US wants from him are something that he finds impossible to provide if he were to hope to maintain his political life. The best he could strike for is a little more time, but the Bush administration does not have any to spare either.
The only approach with any reasonable chance of success to address the problem is a regional effort that brings in all key players but that game could not be played under American rules.
Washington has to be bend and has to make compromises it might not want to make. But that is the only approach and the US knows the right addresses in the region to contact if and when it is ready to follow that route.