Saturday, July 12, 2008

Bottom lines in the slide towards conflict

July 12, 2008


Bottom lines in the slide towards conflict

THE drums of war are getting louder, with Israeli sources revealing that Israeli warplanes are practising in Iraqi airspace and land in US airbases in the country as preparation for a potential strike on Iran.
The "revelation" follows a series of test-firing of missiles conducted by Iran that prompted Israel to threaten that it could launch pre-emptive strikes designed to prevent Iran from continuing its nuclear programme which the West insists is aimed at developing atomic weapons — a charge that Tehran denies.
It goes without saying that the US would have a key role in any Israeli military strike against Iran.
The missile tests have also led to a disinformation/misinformation campaign suggesting Iran had faked some of the test-firings and questioning whether it has missiles with enough range to hit Israel.
However, such questions are not going to dissuade the US and Israel from undertaking military strikes against Iran, whose announcement of the test-firing of missiles was deemed to be a warning that it has enough missiles and launchers to keep on firing on consecutive days. Obviously, Tehran wants to talk from what it sees as a position of strength, and this has only strengthened the US and Israeli resolve for military action against Iran.
That is what is indicated by the report that Israeli warplanes are engaged in massive nocturnal activity in Iraqi airspace and several of them were spotted in American-held airbases in Iraq. The Israeli moves in Iraq follows reports of a massive exercise over the Mediterranean several weeks ago that Israeli officials described as "the dress rehearsal" for an attack on Iran's nuclear sites.
The latest report quoted former Iraqi military officers in the Anbar province as saying that Israeli airplanes are seen arriving during the night from the west, entering Iraq's airspace and landing on a runway near the city of Hadita. They said they believed that the jets were practising for a raid on
Iran's nuclear sites.
There is no doubt that Israel would use American bases in Iraq as a platform from which to attack Iran. In fact, it would not be much off the mark to suggest that securing an absolute military control of Iraq to allow its ally Israel to have it way in the region was one of the US objectives of the invasion and occupation of the country in 2003.
And now the region faces the prospect of further conflict and serious disruption of life if Israel and the US, individually or collectively, were to strike at Iran.
On the surface, it would appear that there is little anyone could do to check the US/Israel-Iran confrontation from worsening since both sides are determined not to have the other have its way.
However, the stakes are too high for everyone, with the region having to pay first for the chaos and crises resulting from any US/Israeli military action against Iran. Washington should be told in no uncertain terms that the region could not afford yet another military misadventure while Tehran should be told to take upon itself to stay away from provocation that would have disastrous consequences for everyone.
The US should drop its insistence that diplomacy means the other party capitulating and giving up everything. Iran should come to terms with the fact that it has the responsibility to address genuine concerns, if any, caused by its nuclear activities.
That are the bottom lines at this critical juncture in time.