Wednesday, February 16, 2005

Right partners in Iraq

February 16, 2005

Seeking right partner


SHIITES, the long-oppressed majority in Iraq, have done well in the Jan.30 elections, but they may have to make compromises with other groups since they failed to win an absolute two-third majority of the seats in the 275-member National Assembly.

The 47.6 per cent vote won by the Shiite list -- the United Iraqi Alliance -- endorsed by the country's senior-most Shiite religious leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani is far short of the two-third majority that would allow the group to form a government of its own.

Therefore it has to depend on other groups in a coalition arrangement. Indeed, some Shiites in the list are saying their showing in the elections qualifies them to reject the post-Saddam Hussein, US-drafted interim constitution that insists on a two-third parliamentary majority for a government. However, that would mean alienating the Kurds and another step towards disintegration of the country since the Kurds could break away from Baghdad and set up their own entity in the north if their emergence as kingmakers in the country is not recognised and respected.

Jaafari favourite

As of Wednesday, Ibrahim Al Jaafari, head of the Dawa Party, one of the two dominant groups in the Shiite list, who is a vice-president in the interim government, emerged as the favourite for the powerful post of prime minister in a Shiite-Kurdish alliance where the Kurds would be given the ceremonial post of president. They want Jalal Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, to be president.

The Kurds also want some key ministries in exchange for their supporting a Shiite prime minister and government.

The Kurds have won 25.4 per cent of the votes and it makes an ideal coalition partner, but then a Shiite-Kurdish coalition would technically" need another four per cent for a two-third majority.

However, in the final count, the Shiite list is expected to have about 140 seats -- two seats more than needed for a simple majority -- in the assembly once those votes that went to candidates who did not get enough to secure a seat are redistributed. The Kurds will have about 70 and interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's Iraqi National Accord (INA) will have 40. That meant a Shiite-Kurdish coalition having 210 seats, five seats more than a two-thirds majority.

A key factor here is the natural alliance between the Kurdish parties and the INA. Both sides are backed by the US and that had been the tie-up between them so far.

The INA got 13.6 per cent of the votes, and a hypothetical Kurdish-INA coalition -- which will have a combined strength of 110 seats in the assembly in the final count -- could prevent the Shiite list from forming a government without their support.

Definitely, the Kurds would not want to throw a spanner in the works since they are seeking the presidency and they need the Shiite list's backing in order to capitalise on their newfound legislative clout.

No doubt, the Americans, who have lost their bet on Allawi, could try to call the shots with the Kurds and force them into demanding that Allawi be named prime minister as a consensus candidate in return for the Kurd-INA alliance join the Shiite list in a coalition.

However, that would mean the Kurds demanding the posts of both president and prime minister, a demand that will surely be shot down by the Shiites.

Sunni political groups that shunned the election will be invited to participate in the new government and in drafting the constitution.

If whatever coalition that is formed wants to bring in the Sunnis, then the Sunnis have to be given at least one prominent position in the government. Again, that intensifies the battle for top posts.

The Shiite list had several aspirants for premiership. They included Adel Abdel Mahdi, the interim finance minister who belongs to the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), the other dominant group in the Shiite list, Ahmed Chalabi, once the candidate favoured by the US, and Hussein Shahristani, a physicist.

The SCIRI was reported to have withdrawn Mahdi's candidacy in favour of Jaafari on Wednesday and thus clearing the way for a Shiite-Kurdish alliance.

Allawi's importance

However, some analysts say it is too early to write off Allawi, a US-backed Shiite who describes himself as secular, as a compromise to unite religious and ethnic groups.

The other groups which fielded candidates in the elections did badly. The Sunni group of interim President Ghazi Al Yawar got one per cent of the votes; elder statesman Adnan Pachachi failed to win a single seat. In all, the Sunnis, most of whom stayed away or were prevented from voting, got five seats.

After the results of the elections are confirmed on Wednesday, if they are unchallenged, the National Assembly will approve a prime minister by early March.

There is a tacit agreement that the prime minister will be a Shiite, the president a Kurd and one of two vice presidents a Sunni.

However, the Kurds and Sunnis will not accept a clerical Shiite because they want to pre-empt Sharia, or Islamic law, being enshrined in the constitution as the primary source of law as suggested by some leaders of the Shiite alliance.

Sadr factor

In another blow to the US, Jaafari, who is emerging as the favourite to become the prime minister, wants to bring in Moqtada Sadr, a firebrand cleric who has challenged the US dominance of the country, into his cabinet.

At one point Sadr was among America's top enemies in Iraq, with the US military declaring him wanted dead or alive.

One of the first things that Sadr, who is known to have ties with figures in Iran, an archfoe of the US, did after the Jan.30 elections was to call for the US to set a deadline to leave Iraq.

No doubt, the neocon plotters of the invasion and occupation of Iraq are scratching their heads in Washington trying to figure a way out of the quagmire they created for the US by failing to take seriously the complexities of the Iraqi society and the forces that would emerge to the centre-stage once Saddam Hussein was toppled.

Indeed, they might manage to come up with a compromise. But then that would only be a stopgap measure since the going would get much tougher once the National Assembly gets down to drafting a permanent constitution that would be acceptable to the country's three major constituncies -- Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds -- given the deep divisions among them in perceptions of the future of Iraq.

Allawi deatl a big blow

BY PV VIVEKANAND

THE future of interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and through him the American plans in have been dealt a severe blow by the wide margin that the Shiite list endorsed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani has gained in the Jan.30 elections.
Indeed, there is an off-chance that Allawi could still emerge as a compromise candidate and seek to hang onto the job as prime-ministership based on the votes that the country's northern Kurdish groups gained in the elections. However, the Shiite list is unlikely to accept Allawi as prime minister. One of it leaders, Ibrahim Al Jafaari, has already staked a claim to that job.
On its own, the group led by Allawi and President Ghazi Al Yawar is seen as securing around 15 per cent of the votes cast, but they could team up with the Kurds, who are expected to gain around 20 per cent of the votes. Thus the strength of the Allawi-Kurd alliance would be around 35 per cent of the total votes cast for the 275-member assembly. That is enough to give Allawi the bargaining power to prevent the United Iraqi Alliance of the Sistani camp from going ahead on its own and form a government since it would denied the required two-thirds majority in the assembly.
The Allawi-Yawar group also benefited from the support of Ayatollah Hussein Sadr of Baghdad, who does not agree with the way Sistani leads the Shiite community.
How Yawar, head of a powerful Sunni-Shiite tribe, would fit into the scheme of things is unclear yet.
In the final count, the United Iraqi Alliance list of 228 candidates representing 16 political groups headed by Abdul Aziz Al Hakim’s Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and Jafaari’s Al Daawa is expected to gain up to 140 to150 seats on its own and thus emerge as the largest party but it would have to depend on potential coalition partners to form a two-third majority government.
The main Shite list contender against Jaafari to the post of prime minister is said to be Adel Abdel Mahdi, who is now finance minister.
Aziz Hakim, the cleric who headed the list, has indicated he is not interested in prime ministership.
The Kurds — represented by the United Kurdish list set up jointly by Jalal Talabani and Masoud Barzani — could turn out to be the kingmakers here. They account for about two million of the eight million votes cast, and this is seen to give them around 60 seats, or around 20 to 22 per cent of the votes compared with their 16 to 18 per cent content in the Iraqi population (the Kurds are accused artificially inflating their support in Kirkuk by importing tens of thousands of armed voters from across Kurdistan. Turkey, alarmed by the growing strength of the Kurds, has demanded an American explanation and has hinted at the use of Turkish military force to rectify the distortion). The Kurds also garnered some 400,000 overseas voters in the United States and Europe.
Again, the Kurds on their own could not prevent the formation of a Sistani camp government. They have to team up with the Allawi group, but the two are natural allies, given that both of them enjoy American backing and have been in the forfront of implementing American-designed programmes in the country since the ouster of Saddam Hussein.
In yet another slap to the US, Jaafari, who is emerging as the favourite to become the next prime minister of Iraq, wants to bring in Moqtada Sadr, a firebrand cleric who has challenged the US dominance of the country, into his cabinet.
In a series of interviews over the weekend, Jafaari described Sadr as a responsible person who is capable of contributing to the reconstruction of Iraq.
Jafaari noted that Moqtadr Sadr's father was killed by Saddam Hussein, and the young cleric has a large number of followers.
At one point Sadr was among America's top enemies in Iraq, with the US military declaring him wanted dead or alive.
Sadr called on Friday for the US to set a deadline to leave Iraq, something Washington is not prepared to do. Sadr is also known to have ties with figures in Iran, an archfoe of the US.
Allawi is trying to jockey himself into a position as a consensus candidate for premiership. However, unless his group and the rest of other parties, including the powerful Kurds, come up with an absolute one-third of the votes, the United Iraqi List will have an open ground and a free hand — with two-thirds of the vote — to form a government on its own without any challenge.
That would be clear in about a week's time.