Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Nothing short of a miracle

Nov.28, 2007

Nothing short of a miracle

LET us set aside all misgivings about Israel's real intentions about the shape of a peace agreement with the Palestinians and accept in good faith the pledge made by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Annapolis.
Given on the realities on the ground today, the end-2008 deadline for that they have set — obviously nudged to do so by US President George W Bush — for a final agreement is far from reality. Such is the complexity of the problems that they need to settle in the next 12 months that it would take nothing short of a miracle for them to deliver on their pledge.
It is not that there is any question that Olmert and Abbas want to meet the deadline, but that it seems next to impossible for them to do so.
Olmert faces tough political challenges from within his ruling coalition and of course from the rightwing hawks in the opposition on all the key issues that he needs to find solutions. The more than 250,000 Jewish settlers — most of them recent migrants — in the West Bank pose yet another formidable challenge to Olmert.
Similarly, Abbas faces the task of convincing his own constituency and the rejectionist Hamas and likeminded groups not only that there is indeed light for the Palestinians at the end of the tunnel but also that the light is not fire that is waiting to engulf them.
In practical terms, Abbas needs to persuade Olmert to agree to return Arab East Jerusalem to the Palestinians — that would require slicing the Holy City against opposition from never-say-die Jewish fanatics for whom Palestinian rights mean less than nothing.
Abbas has also to find tens of billions of dollars to offer compensation to Palestinian refugees from the 1948 crisis sparked by Israel's creation. The third challenge he faces is equally difficult, if not tougher: Convincing Hamas to return the Gaza Strip to a united Palestinian leadership under him.
Indeed, let us take for granted that Bush would remain closely involved in the peacemaking process and throw the US weight behind it. That should ease the task a little but not enough because US intervention at whatever strength and level would have little effect on the positions of those who are determined to undermine the process.
Indeed, the entire scene could undergo a positive change if the Israelis and Palestinians accept without any reservation that co-existence could be based only on respect for each other's legitimate rights, with the onus more the Israelis to recognise that they are living in others' territories that were seized through the use of force. But they have not been able to accept or recognise it in the last 60 years.
Will they be able to do so in one year?