Blow to confidence - Indonesia blast

TUESDAY's massive bombing at Jakarta's JW Marriott Hotel has dealt a serious blow to a growing belief that the crackdown across South-East Asia against hardline groups has been bearing fruit.
With dozens of suspected Jemaah Islamiyeh (JI) members under detention in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore, the governments were hoping that they had squashed the head of extremism in the region.
The hopes were dashed on Tuesday, and so was the American assertion that the US-led war against terror had scored remarkable success in pre-empting extremist attacks.
It had not been lost on Indonesia or the world that the bombing came in the same week as the first verdict was due in the trials of the alleged perpetrators of the previous attack - last October's Bali bombing.
During their trials, the defendants had repeatedly said they were seeking to strike at western interests and inflict as many casualties as possible in Bali, and were certain their colleagues at large would continue the campaign.
Authorities from Indonesia and its neighbours have been warning that the movement is still active despite the detention of more than 100 alleged members in the past two years, and preparing to mount another major operation.
.According to Indonesian police, security forces had come across documents last month showing extremists were planning to target the area around Marriott hotel, where the blast had killed 15 people and wounded over 150 others.
The documents were seized in a raid that netted seven alleged members of the JI, the regional militant group accused of carrying out last year's Bali nightclub bombings.
The revelation came as Indonesian and Australian authorities warned that more terror strikes were possible in Indonesia in the coming days.

Unusual claim

A man, claiming to speak for JI was quoted as saying by Singapore's Straits Times on Wednesday: "This is a message for ... all our enemies that, if they execute any of our Muslim brothers, we will continue this campaign of terror in Indonesia and the region."
It was the first known claim of responsibility issued by JI and drew scepticism.
The Marriott, Jakarta's newest upmarket hotel, is regularly used for functions by American and other Western diplomats. US Secretary of State Colin Powell, stayed there last year, as did Australian Prime Minister John Howard in February. The hotel, near the business and diplomatic district, was the venue for the US embassy's July 4 celebrations.
The Marriott is considered to have the best security in Jakarta. Cars are checked before allowing entry, and people have to pass through a metal detector to get into the lobby. But the heightened security measures, introduced across Jakarta to protect Western targets, failed to prevent a suicide bomber driving up to the entrance in an Indonesian-made Kijang van on Tuesday.
Police pointed to similarities with the Bali attacks— including the apparent use of a mobile-phone to detonate the bomb.
After the document’s discovery in the central Java town of Semarang, Indonesian police had increased security patrols in the Marriott area.
Obviously the security alert was not enough to pre-empt the attack, which came two days before a verdict in the trial of a key suspect in the Bali attacks, Amrozi Bin Nurhasyim.
More attacks feared

It is now widely believed that the ongoing court cases against JI suspects would lead to more bombings in Indonesia.
Predictably, Amrozi reacted with joy over the Jakarta bombing as he testified at another JI suspect's trial in Bali.
Asked about the blast, he grinned and yelled out, "Bomb!" After testifying at the same trial, the alleged mastermind of the Bali blasts, Imam Samudra, shouted, "Thank God, I am thankful" about Tuesday's bombing.
The largest political groups in Indonesia — Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah — condemned the bombing and offered condolences to the victims.
Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer had spoken of intelligence in the hours after the bombing that there could be more militant attacks in Indonesia in the coming days. He did not say what the intelligence was.
The explosion followed repeated warnings by Western embassies in recent weeks that JI — which is said to have links with the Al Qaeda network — was planning further attacks in Indonesia.
Last month police claimed they had uncovered a group plotting strikes in the capital and seized a tonne of explosives in Samarang. But they said two bombs shipped to Jakarta were still missing.
The US embassy renewed its warning to exercise rigorous security precautions, and avoid "soft" targets such as hotels, clubs, schools, restaurants and shopping centres where Westerners congregate. Since the Bali bombing, most Western countries have advised their nationals to avoid non-essential travel to Indonesia.
While bombings are a regular occurrence in Indonesia, which is wracked by political and nationalist tensions, most cause only minor damage. Only JI is thought to have the training and capability to stage such large-scale attacks.
Indonesian police have rounded up scores of JI operatives since the Bali bombing, which killed 202 people. The authorities in Malaysia and Singapore have also made numerous arrests. But intelligence agencies are uncertain about the size of the group. And it was not clear — until Tuesday — whether it remained an effective force.
Officials believe dozens of operatives have attended militant training camps in remote parts of Indonesia, particularly on Sulawesi island, and in the southern Philippines.
One of JI's notorious bombers, an Indonesian national, Fathur Rohman Al Ghozi, walked out of one of the Philippines' most secure prisons three weeks ago. His whereabouts are unknown, and no one is sure whether he was involved in Tuesday's attack.

Internal preoccupation

Some say the government's preoccupation with a separatist rebellion in Aceh province and presidential elections scheduled for next year have diverted attention away from the need to root out militancy.
Indonesian police have earned considerable praise for their efficient investigation into the Bali attacks and for the arrests of at least three dozen suspects.
The Bali bombings caused a sharp downturn in the number of visitors to the island which accounts for about half of the $4.5 billion the country earns annually from tourism.
But its effects on other sectors of the economy — particularly the dominant energy and manufacturing areas — proved negligible.
"The recovery after the Bali bomb was faster than expected, showing our economy's resilience," says Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Indonesia's top economics minister. He predicted that the attack in Jakarta would not affect economic prospects for this year.
Still, the country's hopes of regaining the high growth rates of past decades, necessary to keep up with a burgeoning population, will almost certainly suffer.

Political fallout

The political fallout will be more difficult to gauge.
Analysts say that while police were focusing on the JI, the attention of the military is now on the campaign to crush the 25-year rebellion in Aceh.
The government had pinned two recent attacks — a pipe bomb that exploded in front of the parliament building in July and another at the Jakarta airport in April — on Acehnese rebels, despite the fact that there was little or no evidence to back the claim.
The latest bombing could contribute to the growing disenchantment with President Megawati Sukarnoputri.
This could boost the electoral chances of presidential candidates such as General Wiranto, a former armed forces commander and protégé of the country's longtime ruler Suharto.
Wiranto is campaigning for the nomination of the Golkar Party, Suharto's political party during his 32-year rule.
He is said to enjoy considerable popularity among Indonesia's 210 million people, many of whom still respect Suharto for the economic progress he brought to the country before his ouster in 1998.
One thing is clear: The blast in Jakarta was not aimed at Indonesians as much as the West, particularly the US.
And that brings attention to the relevance of comments that Libya's Muammar Qadhafi made last week.
Qadhafi said on American television that the US-led war on terror has strengthened Al Qaeda — and, by extension, similar groups, including JI — because Muslims have perceived the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as aggression against Islam and attempts to spread American influence.
While affirming that Libya is co-operating with the US to fight terrorism and describing Al Qaeda as the "common enemy" and as "crazy and insensible people," he asserted that
America's war against Osama Bin Laden has transformed him into "a symbol for defending the Islamic world." Al Qaeda members have committed attacks on America, Egypt, Nigeria, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and other countries, "so all these countries are fighting one common enemy," he said.
No doubt, Qadhafi's words would find resonance with what many are convinced in the Arab and Muslim worlds, particularly his assertion that the US "sacrificed its own interests with the Arabs for the sake of the Jews."
Qadhafi singled out Washington's foreign policy for criticism. He called it colonialist and controlled by Jewish group and said:
"As long as America (is) approaching (the war on terror) in such a method ... together with the Israelis ... the more they do that, the more they create an environment or atmosphere for the development of A1 Qaeda,."


Compiled from news agencies