Saturday, November 20, 2004

Fallujah - writing on the wall

Fallujah: The writing was on the wall


There was no dearth of warnings to the United States that its military assault to "cleanse" Fallujah of insurgents would lead to a humanitarian catastrophe, and, if anything, Iraqi resistance would only emerge stronger elsewhere in the country. But the Washington strategists chose to ignore the warnings. It could not be said they did not foresee the disaster that has hit Fallujah and destroyed the life of tens of thousands of its residents.

The gruesome pictures from Fallujah -- some of them not appearing in the mainstream media outlets -- speak of innocent civilians -- mainly women and children -- caught in the crossfire and hundreds of people maimed for life.

The Washington strategists definitely expected it; that was why they put off the assault on Fallujah until after the US presidential elections on Nov.2. They feared that those images could have a negative impact on George W. Bush's chances in the elections. When he was re-elected for another four years, his strategists found it fit to give the green signal for the invasion of the town.

Today, as reports from Iraq show, thousands are trapped in Fallujah, with the US military besieging the town and denying entry to relief convoys. There is no water, no food, no medical assistance and no power, and hundreds of corpses are rotting in the streets of Fallujah.

The Iraqi government says more than 1,600 people were killed and 1,000 people arrested in Fallujah. However, independent sources put the casualty figure at least double that.

An official of the International Committee of the Red Cross has said at least 800 civilians have been killed during the US military siege. The estimate was based on reports from Red Crescent aid workers stationed around the embattled city, from residents within the city, and from refugees.

The official estimated that at least 50,000 residents remain trapped within the city. They were too poor to leave, lacked friends or family outside the city, and therefore had nowhere to go, or they simply had not had enough time to escape before the siege began.

The Ministry of Health in the interim Iraqi government had stopped supplying hospitals and clinics in Fallujah two months before the current siege.

Contradicting eyewitness accounts, Iraq's interim prime minister, Iyad Allawi, said he did not believe civilians were killed in the battle. That assertion has fuelled anger among the Iraqis.

The fatal shooting of a wounded and apparently unarmed man in a Fallujah mosque by an American soldier is another source of Iraqi fury.

Al Jazeera Television broadcast the footage of the soldier opening fire at a wounded Iraqi fighter on Saturday.

In the US, it hit news on Monday with the airing of the footage taken by pool correspondent Kevin Sites of NBC News. Sites said the man who was killed did not appear to be armed or threatening in any way, with no weapons visible in the mosque.

The US military has launched an investigation "to determine whether the Marine acted in self-defense, violated military law or failed to comply with the Law of Armed Conflict."

But, given the backdrop of American soldiers' ill-treatment of Iraqis held at Abu Ghraib prison, no investigation or finding could undo the damage already done.

Is the situation that the assault left behind in Fallujah what the US calls success? Then, a few more such "successes" are in the making elsewhere in Iraq.

These include Mosul in the north, where armed insurgents are reportedly in control of some sectors of the town. Insurgents are also in control of most parts of Ramadi, Samarra, Haditha, Baquba, Hiyt, Qaim, Latifiyah, Taji, and Khaldiyah.

Insurgents are also fighting the US-led coalition forces in Baiji, Tall Afar near the border with Syria, Hawija as well as parts of Baghdad, such as Al Dora, Al Amiriyah, Abu Ghraib, Al Adhamiya, and Khan Dhari.

American casualties

Since the assault on Fallujah began, the US military has reported 130 to 140 attacks a day, including car bombings, roadside mine blasts and ambushes, along with sabotage and intimidation of Iraqi security forces.

According to a Pentagon count, American deaths in Iraq in November are approaching 100, making it the second-deadliest month since the invasion of he country in March 2003.

In April, 135 deaths were registered, again the bulk of it in Fallujah when US forces fought fierce battles only to be withdrawn from the town.

Until now the second-deadliest month was November 2003 with 82 deaths, and 80 Americans died in May and September this year.

"It is difficult to gauge the effect of the growing death toll on US troop morale," the Associated Press reported. "Commanders say their men and women are holding up well, although they caution that more hard fighting lies ahead."

Pentagon figures cited by the AP shows that most of the deaths this month have been in the Fallujah offensive that began on Nov. 7. Many Marines and soldiers also have been killed in Ramadi and other cities in Anbar province west of Baghdad, as well as in Mosul in the north, Babil province south of Baghdad and in and around the Iraqi capital.

As of Tuesday the Pentagon said 1,210 US service members have died in Iraq since the conflict began 20 months ago. At the beginning of November the Pentagon count stood at 1,119, and it rose rapidly as the Fallujah fighting intensified and insurgents struck back in other cities and towns.

Since the start of the war, 8,956 US service members have been wounded, of which nearly 5,000 were serious enough to prevent them from returning to duty. At the start of the month the total was 8,287.

Indeed, the US military would be able to overpower the guerrillas but the price that the Iraqis would have to pay would be high in terms death and destruction among their midst.

Jordanian Abu Musab Zarqawi, who leads what appears to be a well-organised group, which has vowed allegiance to Osama Bin Laden, has called on Iraqis to fight the coalition forces. If the US military "finishes Fallujah, it will move in your direction," said a voice said to be Zarqawi's warned followers in a tape. "Beware and deny it the chance to carry out this plan."

The man said the US forces were overextended and would be unable to respond everywhere. "Shower them with rockets and mortars and cut all the supply routes," he said.

Political churning

On the political front, the worst fallout from the assault on Fallujah is the deepened schism between Sunnis and Shiites represented in the interim administration.

The arrest of the deputy speaker of interim Iraqi parliament, Nassir Ayef, from his residence in Baghdad on Tuesday is the best example.

Ayef is leader of Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party, which quit the interim government last week in protest against the US-led assault on Fallujah. The party withdrew its sole minister in the Allawi cabinet last week in protest against the interim government's support of the US-led military strike against Fallujah and other Sunni towns, but retained Ayef as deputy speaker of the 100-member Iraqi interim assembly, the de facto parliament.

The party's minister, Minister of Industry Hajim Al Hassani. was told to quit the government but Hassani refused and was the party expelled him.

Allawi fuelled the rightists further by contradicting eyewitness accounts and telling photographs from Fallujah and asserting that no civilian was harmed in the assault on the town. He also endorsed the American military's decision to refuse the entry of food, water and medicine into the town in order to help victims of the US-led attack..

Confirming Ayef's arrest, Islamic party spokesman Ayad Al Sammarai said:

"This action is a kind of punishment to the (Iraqi) Islamic Party because we object to what is happening in Iraq , especially Fallujah and to the security policies adopted by the Americans and the Iraqi government.

"We think that peaceful solutions and negotiations are the best way to solve problems away from violence. Such attitudes will complicate things in Iraq."

Losing the support of the Iraqi Islamic Party is detrimental to Allawi since it is the Iraqi arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, one of the most influential and best organised groups in the Middle East.

Worsening the situation are raids on mosques and the arrests of several Sunni leaders in addition to Ayef.

Sheikh Mahdi Al Sumaidaei, head of the Supreme Association for Guidance and Daawa, a conservative Sunni organisation, has accused the Allawi's government of "launching a war on Sunnis."

Sumaidaei has called for Sunnis to launch a civil disobedience campaign to protest the assault on Fallujah.

Immediately, Iraqi security forces raided his Um Al Tuboul mosque and seized weapons and arrested Sumaidaei and about two dozen supporters.

Backing Allawi in his stand on Fallujah are the Kurds, who are enjoying broad autonomy in the north of the country. They have sent reinforcements to support the assault on Fallujah and to fight the insurgents in Mosul.

According to Nawshirwan Mustafa, an official with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Fallujah was a "hub of terrorists" and that the US had taken its own time to launch the assault.

Modher Shawkat, a top official with the Shiite National Congress Party, has warned that national unity would be the first victim of "a wide perception in the Sunni streets that they are targeted and such is a reality even if it is not intended."

However, Allawi rejects suggestions the offensive would create a backlash among the Sunni minority.

"There is no problem of Sunnis or Shiites," he said. "This is all Iraqis against the terrorists. We are going to keep on breaking their backs everywhere in Iraq. We are not going to allow them to win."

However, the Association of Muslim Scholars, considered the most influential Sunni group in Iraq with 3,000 clerics, has called for a nationwide election boycott in January to protest the assault on Fallujah.

Election boycott

Most observers say that the election results would be invalid if Sunnis boycott them.

On the other hand, the Shiite leadership under Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani is hoping to gain power through the elections. With the Shiites accounting for about 60 per cent of Iraq's 25 million people, Sistani believes that Shiites will dominate the elected government.

Sistani and other Shiite leaders have not commented in public over the assault on Fallujah, and this posture has come under criticism from the Sunnis.

"We didn't hear from them at all," said Sumaidaei. "I assume they are either satisfied or they are afraid. However, when there were attacks on Shiite cities, the Sunni clerics in Iraq immediately condemned them. What about the Shiites?"

Zarqawi has accused Sistani of having blessed the Fallujah assault, calling him "the infidel's imam."

A Sistani aide in Karbala, Afdhal Al Mousawi, dismissed such criticism, asking whether the Shiites had been responsible for "the terrorists taking shelter in Fallujah."

Mousawi said the assault on Fallujah was inevitable "to free the city of its kidnappers." He also said the attack on Fallujah paled in comparison to the suffering of the Shiites under Saddam Hussein.

In the meantime, the US military is battling to control other areas of Iraq, and, as the Washington Post reported on Tuesday, the coalition forces have still to take complete control of Fallujah.

Abdullah Janabi, who belongs to a prominent tribe in Fallujah, and who is said to be a leading insurgent, has vowed that the battle in Fallujah was only the beginning of an uprising that would rock the country.

"The Americans have opened the gates of hell," Janabi said on Monday in Fallujah, according to the Post. "The battle of Fallujah is the beginning of other battles."

The appearance of Janabi in the southern part of Fallujah challenged the American claim that he and other insurgent leaders had fled even before US forces entered the town.

Janabi insisted that other insurgent leaders remained in Fallujah with him, said the Post.

According to the paper, the American strategy in Iraq is a three-step process -- clearing out the insurgents, building up the Iraqi security forces, and then develop and instal local governments in preparation for national elections.

But, the Post notes, the second and third steps promise to be more difficult to take than the first, in part because they are largely beyond US control.