Monday, November 17, 2003

Saddam readied guerrilla war

pv vivekanand

CLEAR signs have emerged that Saddam Hussein had known he would be toppled and he and his supporters planned for a guerrilla war for nearly one year before the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in March and April this year, according to Western and Arab intelligence sources.
The finding is rather startling, the sources admitted, given Saddam's rhetorics and defiance of the US in the run-up to the war and the way Iraqi defences collapsed under a deal American intelligence made with senior Iraqi miltiary officers.
"We're sure American intelligence has also come across the information that Saddam had been planning the intense guerrilla war that is taking place today in post-war Iraq," said a Western intelligence source. "They (American intelligence) are not disclosing the information, and European intelligence agencies don't feel obliged to share their fingings with the Americans either," added the source.
Arab intelligence sources also confirmed that they had found out that Saddam had ordered a close-knit group of supporters — who were and are not known even to his top aides — to prepare for "the war of resistance" against the US sometime in the second quarter of 2002.
"There was a steady diversion of arms and ammunition from the stores of the Iraqi miltiary to unknown destinations and those who questioned it were told it was being done under the direct orders of Saddam himself," said an Arab source.
"All indications are that Saddam was fully aware that he stood no chance against the US military might and that he would be ousted from power," said the source. "Saddam was not known to be a military strategist - a weak one at that if any thing - and his option was to make it as costly as possilble for the Americans to maintain their control of post-war Iraq."
The revelations are surprising since they confound all theories forward so far to explain the mounting intensity of resistance attacks against American and allied forces that constitute the coalition forces occupying Iraq.
According to the Arab intelligence source, Osama Bin Laden and Saddam had no organised links prior to or after the Sept.11, 2001, when Bin Laden's Al Qaeda activists slammed three hijacked airplanes to New York's World Trade Center towes and Washington's Pentagon.
"Saddam had invited Bin Laden to take shelter in Iraq following the August 1998 bombings of American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania but Bin Laden turned down the invitation since he had nothing but contempt for Saddam and his polices," said the source.
According to the source, Al Qaeda fighters and sympathisers — Sudanese, Yemenis, Egyptians, Algerians and others  — drifted into Iraq before and after the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq this year, but "they are not there as an organised group under a central command."
"They are in small groups but have contacts with the underground resistance that is supplying them with arms and ammunition to wage surprise attacks on the Americans in Iraq," said the Arab source.
This account was confrmed by the European intelligence source.
"What we are seeing in Iraq today are un-coordinated but effective attacks against the occupation forces," said the source. "It had surprised us to see that there was a steady source of supply of rockets, mortars and short-range projectiles as well as RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades) that were being used in the attacks," the source said. "But soon it became apparent that there are weapons and ammunition stored in strategic locations in the country although it is difficult to pinpoint the storage areas," added the source.
According to the source, the Americans are being "more lucky than being efficient" in locating the hidden weapons. In the last six months, the US military has announced the seizure of major hauls of weapons in less than a dozen sites.
"That is only a scratch on the surface, according to information available to us," said the European source.