Thursday, June 19, 2008

Truce should not be a smokescreen

June 19, 2008

Truce should not be a smokescreen


A CEASEFIRE is supposed to take effect on Thursday between Israel and Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip with hopes that it would hold and contain tensions and check an expected Israeli military offensive against the Mediterrean coastal strip.
Egypt and Hamas, which controls the coastal strip, announced the the Egyptian-proposed ceasefire (tahadiyeh) on Tuesday and Israel officially confirmed it on Wednesday and promised to ease its blockade of Gaza next week.
The first beneficiary of the truce should be the ordinary Palestinian people living in the Gaza Strip under the choking Israeli siege. Living conditions are reported to be at one of the worst points ever in the Gaza Strip and the promised easing of the Israeli blockade should be a major relief for them.
Residents of southern Israel should also be relieved since the ceasefire means an end to the daily rocket attacks against them coming from the Gaza Strip.
Hamas will be in charge of the Rafah border crossing — when it is reopened — and this should allow Gazans to secure their food and needs of basic commodities.
Israel has agreed to work separately on a a deal to free kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit, who is believed to be held by several groups, including Hamas allies.
Releasing Shalit will come only in return for freeing a large number of Palestinian prisoners.
Beyond an end to Palestinian rocket attacks against southern Israel and Israeli military strikes against the Gaza Strip as well as an easing of the Israeli blockade, the ceasefire deal has an impact on reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah.
It offers Hamas a political and diplomatic plus point that will also give it some leverage in dealing with Fatah. It offers Hamas, rather than Palestinian President and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, the power to force a cease-fire in the West Bank. Reports in the Israeli press acknowledge that if quiet is maintained in the south, Israel will have to extend the truce to the West Bank in another six months.
Abbas is expected to make his first visit to Gaza since Hamas seized control of the area last year, in an effort to negotiate an agreement between Fatah and Hamas. Now he faces a politically strengthened Hamas. That is how many see the evolving situation.
However, the fact should not be overlooked that Hamas represents a major segment of the Palestinian community and it has proved its strength in legislative elections. As such, its involvement is essential in any serious and realistic effort for peace in Palestine. Fatah and other Palestinian groups have recognised it. Israel also needs to accept it and should not see the current ceasefire as a convenient and temporary arrangement that would allow it to come up with new measures to contain Palestinian resistance to its occupation of Palestinian territories.

More than meets the eye in Shebaa Farms offer

More than meets the eye in Shebaa Farms offer


by pv vivekanand

A GRAND scheme is said to be drawn up behind the scene for an Israeli-Syrian peace agreement starting with a face-to-face meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. However, the success of the French-inspired initiative depends on many factors, including the political fortunes of Olmert, who is caught up in a corruption scandal, and whether the Israeli political and military establishments would agree to any compromise that would lead to the return to Syria of the occupied Golan Heights.
An overriding element is a suspicion that the plan aims only at removing Lebanon from the Arab-Israeli conflict and weakening Syria's position in dealing with the Jewish state.
As the first step of the initiative, Olmert has reportedly told US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that he was ready to withdraw Israeli troops from the Shebaa Farms and hand over the area on the slopes of the Golan Heights to the UN.
The Shebaa Farms enclave was occupied by Israel in the 1967 war as part of the Golan and as such was later recognised by the UN. Syria later said the Shebaa Farms were part of Lebanon and this offered the Lebanese Hizbollah with the justification for continued armed resistance against Israel and the group's own existence as a resistance group. Israel, which quit Lebanon in 2000 after a 17-year occupation, giving up the Shebaa Farms area now would pull the rug from under the Syrian-backed Hizbollah argument.
Rice, who received Olmert's offer on Sunday, travelled to Beirut on Monday and delivered the message to Lebanese President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister-designate Fuad Siniora with an emphatic statement that the US wishes to see " an early settlement to the Shebaa Farms issue.”
Olmert's offer is said to be part of the French-led effort to bring him face to face with Assad at a Mediterranean conference in Paris in mid-July in what could prove out to be a landmark in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Olmert has not presented the Shebaa Farms offer to his coalition government. It is known that Defence Minister Ehud Barak and Israeli military commanders are opposed to the idea because they believe that Israel’s withdrawal from the Shebaa Farms would expose its military positions on the northwestern slopes of the Golan Heights to the Syrian military.
The Israeli military also says that handing over the area to the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon will extend the force’s control over South Lebanon to this strategic sector and thus offer Hizbollah freedom of action in the area.
In a broader context, returning the Golan to Syria is a highly sensitive issue for Israel since the strategic plateau accounts for the sources of more than 70 per cent of the Jewish state's water needs. Olmert would find himself under immense political pressure not only from the hawkish Likud-led opposition but also from his coalition partners against any such compromise.
However, that has not stopped him from authorising indirect negotiations with Syria.
Israeli and Syrian officials have been meeting under Turkish mediation for what is described as indirect dialogue. The next meeting is scheduled to be held next month.
It is believed that French President Nicolas Sarkozy is behind the Shebaa Farms initiative and he secured US approval of the idea during US President George W Bush's visit to Paris last week.
Under the initiative, it is reported, Israel will make a formal announcement in early July that it is ready to give up the Shebaa Farms. Subsequently, a joint US-French-Israeli statement will be issued saying Israel’s willingness to give up the Shebaa Farms is part of an overall understanding that would lead to its evacuation of the Golan.
Two French emissaries, Sarkozy adviser Jean-David Levit and office manager Claude Gueant, travelled to Damascus and presented the offer to Assad. And two of the Israeli officials who took part in the Turkish-mediated indirect talks flew to Paris on Monday to brief the French government on the outcome of their effort.
None of the parties involved has officially acknowledged the French initiative, which Sarkozy hopes would be one of the highlights of the Conference of Mediterranean States in Paris on July 13. The French leader hopes that the event will be attended by Olmert and Assad, who will also be Sarkozy's guest at the Bastille Day parade the next day. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told the French parliament this week that "Assad will be sitting at the same table as Olmert" next month's Paris conference. Syria has yet to confirm it.
Earlier, Assad reportedly told the two French envoys. Levit and Gueant, that the offer withdraw from the Shebaa Farms is not enough. There has to be an explicit Israeli declaration of intention to return the Golan Heights to Syria.
Obviously, Sarkozy is hoping that the promised joint US-French-Israeli statement expected to be issued in the first week of July should satisfy Assad and clear the way for direct peace negotiations between Syria and Israel.
Israeli President Shimon Peres has called on Syria to enter direct talks, citing the example of former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, who forged a peace agreement with the Jewish state after a visit to occupied Jerusalem in 1978.
However, Assad said this month that direct peace talks with Israel were unlikely before 2009 and depended on the political future of Olmert, who has been dogged by calls for his resignation over a corruption scandal.
Assad should also be mindful that Israel could limit the practical implementation of the plan to the Shebaa Farms and thus officially end the "Israeli-Lebanese conflict" and neutralise Hizbollah. That would see Syria losing its Lebanon card and on its own grappling with Israel over the Golan Heights.
Simply put, Syria is in a far better position to deal with Israel while the Lebanon front remains active and it would be much too weak if Lebanon is removed from the equation.
As such, it is natural that Assad is careful to the point of being sceptical of the US position that Washington is pressing for an Israeli withdrawal from the Shebaa Farms. Rice told Lebanese leaders during her recent visit to Beirut that the US is stepping up its efforts into pressing Israel to evacuate the Shebaa Farms.
Rice also said Bush is determined to resolve the Shebaa Farms issue and has requested the UN to send a mission to inspect the situation on the ground there.
The key to the success of the initiative is mutual trust among the players. Washington has to take into consideration that Damascus has every reason to be sceptical of the US motivations and intentions as well as Olmert's ability to deliver on any of his promises.
Clearly, it is up to Bush and Rice to convince Assad that next month's Israeli declaration would definitely lead to a serious and meaningful process involving an honourable and dignified peace agreement that covers every aspect of the Israeli-Syrian conflict. Only then, we could expect to see Assad "sitting at the same table as Olmert" as Kouchner has promised.