Sunday, December 03, 2006

High time to act in Somalia

Dec.3, 2006

High time to act in Somalia

ALTHOUGH not unexpected following the emergence of an Islamist force in Somalia seen unacceptable to its neighbours, the country is sliding towards all-out war on the domestic and external front.
When the Islamist force, "officially" known as the Somalia Islamic Courts Council (SICC), emerged as a potentially dominant centralised group in Somalia this year and successfully ousted warlords from key areas, including the capital Mogadishu, hopes were raised that it would be able to provide some coherence to the strife-torn, lawless Horn of Africa country. Many experts on Somalia had predicted that the UN-supported interim government based in Baidoa would fall and make room for the Islamists, who were welcomed as heroes in most areas they took over.
Since then, however, many other elements have been injected into the scenario, with Ethiopia rallying behind the interim government with military support and the Islamists securing the backing from Ethiopia's rival Eritrea. And the Islamists have also imposed a strict version of Islamic regime in areas under control, raising concerns that they are becoming Africa's Taliban, much to Washington's consternation.
Peace negotiations held between the Islamists and the Baidoa government have not made much headway. If anything, the talks appeared to have inflamed the confrontation between the two sides, with little hopes of them working out a compromise.
The Islamists are now blamed for a suicide attack in Baidoa that killed at least 12 people on Thursday. The militia has denied it was behind the bomb explosions in a statement to a particular segment of the media, but it would seem that people affiliated with the group were behind the attacks since militia sources in Mogadishu seem to have had prior information of the attacks.
Suicide attacks are seen as a hallmark of groups like Al Qaeda, and the Baidoa explosions appear to support the US allegation that the Islamists are aligned with Osama Bin Laden's group and are sheltering Al Qaeda men suspected of attacks against American diplomatic missions in Africa. At the same time, it could not be ruled out that forces that seek to add to the chaos in Somalia were behind the Baidoa bombings.
Thursday's blasts have to be seen against a failed mid-September attempt to assassinate Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed in what was Somalia's first-ever suicide attack.
No matter who carried them out, the suicide blasts Ñ which targeted an Ethiopian military position ÊÑ raise the spectre of more Iraq-style attacks staged in Somalia as the Islamists seek to wrest power by ousting the interim government. The Islamists have declared a "holy war" against Ethiopia citing the Ethiopian military presence in Baidoa and some other parts of Somalia, and it was only expected that Addis Ababa would authorise action against any Islamist incursion from across the border.
The scenario today is ripe for all-out military action pitting Ethiopian forces against the Islamists, with various other regional and international players pulling the strings from behind the scenes. Even Israel has pitched in, alleging that Iran, using alleged links between Lebanon's Hizbollah and the Somali Islamists, is seeking to gain access to Somalia's (unproven) deposits of uranium to help its controversial nuclear activities.
At the UN Security Council, the US has proposed that a UN peace-keeping force of East Africans be sent to Somalia, a move predictably welcomed by the interim government and opposed by the Islamists.
The initiative is interpreted as a dangerous move by the influential Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group as well as European experts who have warned that it could backfire by undermining the government, strengthening the Islamists and leading to a wider, regional war.
"The draft resolution the US intends to present to the UN Security Council... could trigger all-out war in Somalia and destabilise the entire Horn of Africa region by escalating the proxy conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea to dangerous new levels," the International Crisis Group said last week.
The real danger today is that the Islamists might seek to expand their spheres of influence in the country in order to gain a strategic edge which could help them challenge any regional and international move in the country. And that would mean more bloodshed and suffering for the people of Somalia, a majority of whom want only stability and security for themselves rather than any political medicine.
The region and indeed the world at large have a moral responsibility to pre-empt the recurrence of the early 90s when hundreds of Somalis died every day either as a result of drought-induced starvation or armed conflicts between tribal warlords.
In the absence of firm action by the international community in Somalia by initiating a broad, transparent and result-oriented dialogue between the Islamists and the Baidoa government, the world would have another Iraq in its hands in terms of a humanitarian disaster.

Non-starter with Iran and Syria

Oct.21, 2006

Non-starter without
broader framework

TO a large extent, it is true that the raging violence in Iraq could be contained if Iran and Syria were to join efforts to stabilise the country. In simple terms, Tehran and Damascus have links with influential figures in Iraq, both Shiites and Sunnis, and they could use this influence to help check the home-grown insurgency against the US military and its allies in Iraq.
As to the "international jihadist" segment of the guerrilla war in Iraq, the Iranians and Syrians could help prevent the infiltration of "volunteer fighters" across their borders into Iraq with the intention of joining the insurgency if only for the sake of fighting the US wherever possible.
Other avenues for "jihadists" to enter Iraq are the Jordanian, Saudi and Turkish borders. All three countries have imposed strict measures along their borders to check infiltrators. However, infiltrations do take place, as Saudi Arabia has implicitly admitted. Indications have emerged that Saudi militants do play a role in the insurgency in Iraq as part of a wider network involving Al Qaeda. So do Jordanian militants, mainly of Palestinian origin. Those trying to cross into Iraq from Turkey find the task difficult because of Ankara's own fight against its Kurdish dissidents who have found shelter in northern Iraq.
Former US secretary of state James Baker, working under a congressional mandate, is preparing a set of recommendations to the Bush administration. Among the recommendations is a call for Washington to initiate contacts with Iran and Syria in order to contain the crisis in Iraq. Without their involvement, the Baker report is said to implicitly affirm, there could not be an end to the problems the US faces in Iraq.
The broader view of the proposed role Iran and Syria could play in containing the Iraqi crisis is that there is little incentive for either of them to assume and perform that role.
As far as Iran is concerned, the US military should remain preoccupied with the internal crisis in Iraq so that Washington would not find it desirable to open a new front against the Iranians in the name of Tehran's nuclear programmes.
If it were to be asked to shift its stand, Iran would demand in return an assurance from the US that Washington has given up its goal of "regime change" in Terhan; so is the case with Syria.
Secondly, it is a non-starter if the US is seeking to isolate and deal with the Iraq crisis with no bearing on other lingering conflicts in the region — plus of course the raging dispute over Iran's nuclear intentions. The main features of the air among them are distrust and a total lack of good faith.
Indeed, Damascus has repeatedly affirmed that it is ready to help check the crisis in Iraq, but the US has been keeping Syria at arms length. Washington fears that allowing the Syrians to assume a political role in Iraq would lead to strengthening the Syrian influence among Iraqi groups at the expense of the US as well as the US-backed Iraqi opponents of Saddam Hussein who returned to the country after the ouster of the Saddam regime.
Ideally, Washington would want the Syrians to fortify their border with Iraq and launch a nationwide crackdown on Iraqis who have sought shelter in Syria and hand over to the US military anyone suspected of having the slightest link with any Iraqi dissident group. Damascus might consider the idea only if the US undertakes not to seek regime change in Syria and to help solve Syria's conflict with Israel on the basis of returning the Golan Heights in its entirety to Syrian sovereignty. That is definitely not acceptable to Israel and hence the deadlock on that front.
Similarly, from the US point of view, Iran playing a mediatory role in Iraq, would mean Tehran consolidating its alliance with Iraqi Shiites beyond those who are already avowed pro-Iranians in the south of the country.
No doubt, Iran does have an influential role in Iraq and is already playing that role in its own way, but it would not agree switch tracks at US terms except within a broader framework that addresses the whole gamut of issues of conflict between Tehran and Washington. Placing the root issues of dispute on the table is not acceptable to the US, and hence the whole idea of bringing Iran and Syria into the bid for pacifyng the Iraqis would not get anywhere as long as Washington wants to have the apple and eat it too.

Silent brew in northern Iraq

Oct.20, 2006


pv vivekanand

ISRAEL and Turkey are locked in a behind-the-scene tug-of-war in northern Iraq where Kurds seeking to set up an independent state are locked in a bitter battle to drive out the Turkmen community. Also targeted for expulsion from "Kurdistan" are Arabs from other parts of Iraq who were trasnferred there during the Saddam Hussein regime in order to dilute the numerical strength of the Kurds.
Turkmen are Muslims of ethnic Turkish origin who have been living in northern Iraq since the 11th and 12th centuries. They live mainly around the oil-rich areas of Mosul and Kirkuk. Now they number around less than one million although they claim their strength is two million. Iraqi Shiites number around 15.7 million, or 60 per cent of the 26.1 million people of Iraq. Sunnis account for around 20 per cent.
Israel supports the Kurdish drive to separate themselves from Iraq so that the Jewish state could strike oil deals with the Kurds without referring to the central Baghdad government, which is dominated by Shiites and also Sunnis, both of whom are hostile to Israel.
The oil-rich city of Kirkuk is key to the Israeli plan, which involves laying a pipeline from Kirkuk's oilfields to the Israeli refinery located in Haifa on the Mediterranen through Jordan or Syria.
The Kurds, who number about 4.5 million represent 17 per cent of the Iraqi population, have already established a semi-independent (autonomous) state in Kurdistan, including the provinces of Dahouk, Erbil and Sulaimaniyeh.
Kirkuk, the most oil-rich area in Iraq, is in Tameem province, and the Kurds wants to include it in their autonomous territory where they want to set up an independent Kurdistan.
The Turkmen and Arabs, many of whom were resettled their in the 1970s and 1980s, say Kirkuk is an integral part of Iraq and it has to be placed directly under the central government. Turkish was almost the official language in Kirkuk until the early 1970s when it was banned and replaced by Arabic.
Currently the Kurds control the city’s municipal council and police.
The struggle between the Kurds on the one hand and the Turkmen, who are mainly Shiites, and Arabs, who are also mostly Shiites, on the other hand is behind the rising violence in Kirkuk, where a series of recent car bomb attacks which claimed scores of lives.
However, the Turkmen and Arabs have not been able to forge a strong alliance between themselves and present a strong force that could undermine Kurdish plans to annex the city.
Playing a secret role is Israel, whose secret operatives are said to be behind many of the bombings against Turkmen and Arabs in Kirkuk in order to support the Kurds. Israeli security forces are training Kurds and are also advising the Kurdish autonomous government in police and security affairs.
Turkey, which fears the creation of an indepedent Kurdistan because of its own 12-million strong people of Kurdish origin living across the border from Iraq, has warned Israel against its meddling in northern Iraq, but the Israelis are continuing their clandestine association with the Kurdish autonomous government.
The main goal of Israel is to secure its oil supply from Kirkuk. Before Israel was created in 1948 – when the entire area except Syria was under British control - there was an oil pipeline running from Kirkuk to Haifa running through Jordan and Palestine, but this was closed down by Iraq when Israel was created in Palestine and Haifa became part of Israel. Most of the pipeline has been dug out and sold as scrap since then.
Since the closure of the pipeline, Israel has been trying to reopen it, but its efforts were unsuccessful because of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Now that the US has invaded and ousted the Saddam regime and brought Iraq under its control, Israel has renewed the efforts and found the Kurds as its best partners because the Kurds do not share the Arab Muslim hostility towards Israel linked to the Jewish state's occupation of Palestinian and Arab territory.
Currently, Israel buys its oil needs from Russia at international prices and its costs an additonal 30 per cent for the oil to be shipped from Russian oil fields to Haifa. Therefore, it would be a straight 30 per cent saving for Israel if Kirkuk oil is pumped through a pipeline to Haifa.
As the struggle continues in Kurdistan, residents in Kirkuk say conditions in the city and nearby are than that in n Baghdad.
An "ethnic cleansing" is under way in the way, with Kurds forcing out non-Kurds from their areas and non-Kurds doing the same with Kurds.
There is no reliable statistics about the population in Kirkuk because the Saddam regime always manipulated population figures to suit is purposes. The Saddam regime had sought to change the demography of Kirkuk and other parts of northern Iraq by forcing Kurds and Turkmen out to be replaced by Arabs from southern Iraq.
Leaders of the the Iraqi-Turkish front, a Turkmen group, say tens of thousands their community were forced into destitution and now the front is struggling to have them back.
In the meantime, Turkey is seeking to pressure Israel into dropping its plans with the Kurds, but the Israelis are not listening to the Turks, and the US is impliciting backing Israel in this regard.
Effectively, big-time crisis is brewing in northern Iraq, and one could expect more bombings and attacks in Kirkuk in the days and weeks ahead as the struggle gets more intense.

Fresh crisis in Lebanon ?

Oct.19, 2006

Fresh crisis in the
making in Lebanon?

LITTLE signs are appearing that things might not go the way Israel wants with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Israel had been seeking to use UNIFIL against Hizbollah by creating situations — through false-flag operations if necessary — leading to confrontation between the UN force and the Lebanese group. In turn, the crisis could be turned around, according to the Israeli plans, and lead to disarming Hizbollah sooner than later. Of course, there is no reason to believe it has given up the approach. Howver, fissures have started appearing in ideal scenario that suits Israel in its relations with the UN force.
For the first time since its first deployment in 1978, UNIFIL has warned that the force would open fire on Israeli warplanes violating Lebanese airspace. It is significant because of the restructured nature of the UN force and its Europe-led command. It was the commanders of the French contingent in UNIFIL who wave warned that if Israeli warplanes continue their overflights in Lebanon, they may have to open fire on them.
Predictably, Israel remains defiant. Defence Minister Amir Peretz told a Knesset panel that t despite the warnings, Israel would continue to patrol the skies of Lebanon. He claimed that Syria was transfering arms and ammunition to Lebanon, meaning that the embargo imposed by UN Resolution 1701 was not being completely enforced.
Responding specifically to the UNIFIL warning, Peretz said he was to inform the joint committee of representatives of UNIFIL, the Israeli military and the Lebanese army that unless the arms transfers are stopped, Israel will be forced to take "independent" action.
Indeed, that is Israeli arrogance at is peak. Warning and threatening the UN and various other international agencies and human rights groups is nothing strange when it comes to Israel, which believes it has a high moral ground over anyone else on Planet Earth and the world should always make room for Israeli wishes and commands.
European credibility and prestige are at stake as much as those of the UN. The UN force, which was expanded to 15,000 from 2,000 in line with Resolution 1701, is dominated by European countries and they should not allow themselves to be browbeaten by the Israelis.
The Israeli defiance against UNIFIL stems from the Jewish state's belief that no European country would dare or be ready to take hostile action against it. Even if someone did, then Israel knows how to manipulate its links with the US and make sure the culprit is taken to task for not respecting and defending Israeli interests.
Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi has qualified himself as a target of Israeli wrath by giving ahead the green signal for negotiations with the Lebanese government for a quick sale of an Aster 15 battery, the only Western surface-to-air missile with an active guidance system capable of last-minute corrections of targeting at the moment of interception. It is a a joint Franco-Italian product and therefore approval for the sale has come also from French President Jacques Chirac.
The Beirut government has said it is seeking anti-aircraft missiles as well as long-range anti-tank rockets to block Israeli warplanes from entering Lebanese prevent Israeli tanks again crossing the border.
Surely, Israel has mounted a campaign to pre-empt the sale. Its first argument is that Hizbollah would have access to Aster 15 through the Shiite soldiers in the Lebanese army and this could directly jeopardise Israel’s aerial surveillance of Hizballah and other "hostile movements" in Lebanon.
The only reason Israel has not made a big hue and cry over Lebanon's possible acquisition of Aster 5 and long-range anti-tank rockets is that it would add to the mounting criticism that the Israeli leadership find itself under for the fiasco the Jewish state faced in the July-August war against Hizbollah. That does not mean that behind-the-scene pressure is being to bear upon Prodi and other European leaders who are sympathetic to Lebanon's efforts to acquire a minium level of defence against external aggression.
In the meantime, the possibility remains high that Israel and its agents could create an event in south Lebanon that could lead to the UN force being pitted against Hizbollah. UNIFIL commanders would be better off anticipating a serious crisis of Israel's making in southern Lebanon.

Risk of recklessness

Oct.18 2006


Risk of reckless
step as an escape



THE warning by the head of the international nuclear watchdog that
as many as 30 countries could eventually become nuclear weapon states has added a sense of urgency for efforts to deal with the North Korean crisis and Iran's atomic research.
According to IAEA chief Mohammed Al Baradei, the so-called "virtual new weapons states" could develop technology that is at the core of peaceful nuclear energy programmes but could quickly be switched to making weapons "in a very short time." Presumably, apart from Iran, these countries include Brazil, Australia, Argentina, South Africa,
Canada, Germany, Sweden, Belgium, Switzerland, Taiwan, Spain, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Lithuania. These countries have the means to produce weapons-grade uranium if they chose or could quickly build such technology. Some of them could use plutonium waste for weaponisation. However, none of them has suggested they want to use their nuclear technology to produce weapons.
The international community fears that North Korea's nuclear test last week and Iran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment could spark a new arms race in Asia and he Middle East. UN officials have mentioned Egypt, Bangladesh, Ghana, Indonesia, Namibia, Moldova, Nigeria, Poland, Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam and Yemen as countries which could be grouped under this category.
On the Korean front, the crisis is only worsening, with reports confirming that the North Korean test on Oct.9 was indeed a nuclear explosion, and that US intelligence have picked up signs of activity that raises the possibility that the North Koreans might carry out a second test. This could prompt the US to reconsider its options but it would have to come up with additional and more effective measures to contain North Korea.
With China having joined the effort, North Korea could find itself totally isolated, and this raises the question how it would react to such pressure.
Pyongyang has warned that the UN sanctions imposed on after the first test it were were a declaration of war. In a toughly worded statement, it vowed not to succumb to pressure and to deal "deal merciless blows" against anyone who violates its sovereignty.
The key to the crisis is whether North Korea is bluffing when it says it has become a nuclear weapons state and implies that it would not hesitate to use atomic weapons to "defend" itself. Obviously, US intelligence has not been able to come up with a conclusive answer to the question, and hence the focus on the diplomatic front to enforce the sanctions against North Korea.
The world is watching closely how the US will move to curb North Korea's nuclear activities on the one hand and how Washington will confront Tehran, which insists that its nuclear programme is not weapon oriented.
In the immediate term, the IAEA's warning about the "virtual new weapons states" adds to the pressure on the US to act against North Korea and set a deterrent against countries which might be inclined to go for nuclear weapons.
The risk here is that the US, already reeling back from the series of foreign policy failures, might worsen the situation by reckless action as a way out of the crises, and this poses unpredictable consequences whether in Asia or in the Middle East.

Why settle for an imitation?

Oct.16 2006

Why settle for duplicate?


AGAINST increasing talk about plans for a US-endorsed "coup" in Baghdad in order to replace Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki with a Saddam Hussein-style "strongman" to handle the worsening crisis in Iraq, US President George W Bush has reassured Maliki that he would not set a timetable for withdrawal of troops and would continue to support him. That assurance sound rather hollow when seen against the reality that the US could not count on Maliki to control the situation and Bush would have to consider various options in order to check the crisis from growing worse.
Suggestions are rife among experts in American strategies and policies that the Bush administration is looking for a "strongman" in Iraq who should be as ruthless as any other dictator to apply an "iron-fist" approach to put an end to the raging insurgency in the country.
It might not be difficult to find such a man. However, Washington should be finding it bitter to swallow the reality that it has no choice but to abandon its goal of bringing "democracy" to Iraq and return the country to square one — an autocracy similar to the Saddam Hussein regime. It also means calling off all talk about a "new Middle East," and admitting that the Bush administration's policies have failed wholesale and retail in Iraq.
Washington might not have a choice except to admit failure in Iraq, critics say, because the reality has dawned that the US military would never be able to claim victory against the insurgents. Not only that, it has also become clear that the US would only get deeper into the Iraqi imbroglio as every day passes by without effectively putting an end to the sectarian killings that average 100 a day.
The insurgency in Iraq is destined to get worse. A recent National Intelligence Estimate states: "The Iraq conflict has become the 'cause célèbre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world, and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement."
The catch is how to bring about a "transition" at the helm of power in Baghdad given that there are elected representatives of the people in power in Iraq who into being under the initiative of the very same US administration which is now said to be seeking a way to have an autocrat to take the reins.
Different Iraqi groups have tasted power for the first time in their existence and they would fight tooth and nail against any move to deprive them of their newfound authority and clout. First and foremost among those to resist the idea would be the Shiites, who, by virtue of their majority in the population, are today in charge of key affairs of the state.
That is where the rumours of an impending "coup" in Baghdad come into play. Critics accuse the Bush administration of spreading the rumours ahead of actually stage-managing a coup and imposing on the Iraqis a dictator more brutal and ruthless than Saddam Hussein himself.
That the talk about the purported plan is growing and spreading among American strategists, analysts, observers, military experts and media indicates that someone, somewhere in a position that matters should have considered it and discussed it.
The proposal, according to those who propogate it, involves replacing the current government of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki with a five-member panel includinge top Iraqi military officers and headed by an Iraqi who could be relied upon to reinstate a Saddam-style regime in all but name. The proposed five-man "ruling commission" will suspend parliament, declare martial law, and call back some officers of the old Iraqi army" and follow a "shoot-first" policy throughout the country.
Indeed, there are many if and buts that make the proposal preposterous and unconvincing. Perhaps it could even be a trial balloon being floated to test the waters and there might be no substance wahtsover to it.
At the same time, the general assumption is that the US is desparate to find a way out of the Iraq crisis and therefore it is ready consider any idea, however wild and impossible it might sound.
If indeed that is the level of bankruptcy of ideas prevalent in the corridors of power in Washington over how to deal with Iraq, then the total collapse and disintegration of Iraq as a state is not far into the future.
And, if indeed the US is inclined to restore a Saddam-style regime in Baghdad as a way out of the crisis, Washington does not have to look for an imitation — the original is very much available and that too in US custody awaiting his fate.

All bets are off in Korean crisis

All bets are off

Oct.14, 2006

WHY DO we get a feeling that the world powers led by the United States at the UN Security Council have their calculations wrong with their agreement on a draft resolution mandating wide-ranging sanctions against North Korea over its declared nuclear test? Not that North Korea has a great record of contributing positively to the international community, and Pyongyong has indeed openly declared that it has conducted a nuclear test and that it would not hesitate to engage in nuclear war if it is subjected to sanctions. Wouldn't it be ironic that the big powers went after North Korea in a frenzy only because Pyongyang claimed it has conducted a nuclear test and implicitly stated that it is capable of mounting nuclear warheads on missiles?
Doubts are being cast whether North Korea did indeed conduct a nuclear test. According to US intelligence, results from an initial air sampling after North Korea's announced nuclear test showed no evidence of radioactive particles that would be expected from a successful nuclear detonation.
At the same time, the results do not rule out that the North Korean blast was not a nuclear explosion. A final result would be available within days but the initial finding is considered conclusive, according to reports.
Chinese monitoring has also found no evidence of airborne radiation from North Korea's claimed nuclear test.
According to experts, the size of the blast — said to be less than one kilotonne, far smaller than the 12.5 kilotonne bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 — makes it theoretically possible for North Korea to have tested conventional explosives underground and put out a claim that it was a nuclear test.
The absence of any evidence of radiation from the claimed test is also a source of scepticism over the North Korean claim. And, many say that the test had failed in contrary to Pyongyang's claim that it was successful.
However, for all practical purposes, it does not really matter to the world powers whether North Korea did conduct a nuclear test or whether it was a success.
When President George W. Bush called for tough action in response to the North Korea claim from the United Nations and North Korea's neighbors, he made it clear he saw little distinction between an actual nuclear test by North Korea and its announcement of one.
"The United States is working to confirm North Korea's claim, but this claim itself constitutes a threat to international peace and stability," Bush said.
The US position and Friday's agreement on a draft resolution on the crisis triggered by Monday's claim issued by North Korea show that the course of events in the Korean peninsula is headed for confrontation. At this point in time, the world is unsure of the military capabilities of North Korea, but it is a safe assumption that Pyongyang could not only pose a serious military threat in the neighbourhood but also carry out the threat.
Whether true or fake, Pyongyang's nuclear claim is a clear indication that the Pyongyang regime had reached a point where it felt it stood to gain nothing from the stalled six-party negotiations and had to do something drastic to shake the status quo. But, if the nuclear claim proves to be a fake, then Pyongyang has bitten more than it could chew. However, if it is established as true, then all bets are off as to how the crisis would develop.

Iran off the hook... for now

Oct.10, 2006


Iran off US hook for now,
but not the Israeli gunsight

by pv vivekanand



NORTH Korea's nuclear test has caught the US in a bind vis a-vis Iran. Washington has not ruled out military action against North Korea as a punitive measure for its defiance of international calls against going nuclear, but it is doubtful that the US would take that extreme step because of the ambiguity over whether the North Koreans do have nuclear weapons. If they do, then it is a certainty that they would use them against US allies in the neighbourhood if the US launches military action against them, and that in itself is its strongest deterrent.
With such constraints being imposed on its options, the Bush administration finds itself restrained from going ahead with plans to launch military action against Iran in the name of Tehran's refusal to suspend nuclear enrichment. The reason is simple: If the US insists on its hard line against any country outside the exclusive nuclear club that seeks to develop nuclear weapons, then the first candidate is North Korea since it has already conducted a test and has made no secret of its intention to acquire nuclear weapons. It is taken for granted that North Korea does have the ability to produce nuclear weapons and it might already have between four and 13 atomic weapons if some experts' assessments are correct. Others say North Korea is at least one year away from a nuclear bomb.
The "case"  against North Korea is proved, and it is far stronger than the Iranian case because Pyongyang has opted out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) while Iran has retained its status a signatory to the NPT. The world knows that the case against Iran is based on assumptions. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not been able to come up with concrete charges against Iran.
Tehran has played its cards right, and it was an ace that it dealt on Monday by calling for a nuclear-weapons free world following the North Korean nuclear test.
Therefore, the US has to launch military action against North Korea — which is indeed a high-risk proposition to the US friends like Japan and South Korea — before it goes ahead with plans to eliminate or at least set back Iran's "suspicious" nuclear activities through military strikes.
Ironically, one way out of the deadlock is to establish that North Korea did not really conduct a nuclear test and has not reached a level in its nuclear programme to pose a genuine threat.
However, regional and international monitoring stations have affirmed that North Korea did conduct a nuclear test some 2,000 metres underground. As such, the US option of discrediting the North Korean claim has been set back.
South Korean monitors were first to report seismic activity in the area measuring 3.58 on the Richter scale, while the US Geological Survey recorded a 4.2-magnitude earthquake.
Russia has reported that the testing produced an explosion between five and 15 kilotons and that it was indeed nuclear in nature.
The angry Chinese reaction to the North Korean action is telling since Beijing is best placed to establish the authenticity of Pyongyang's claim.
These affirmations have not stopped US strategists trying an attempt by raising doubts whether the seismic event recorded in North Hamgyung province about 350 kilometres north-east of Pyongyang was indeed caused by a nuclear device.
If it is proved to be a dud, then it gets the US off the hook of having to act against North Korea before turning to Iran. Again, the US faces a firm Chinese stand against the military option.
In the meantime, Washington has to put up with humiliation that is emanating from bold North Korean statements and also faces pressure to end its painful crackdown on North Korean finances and finally agree to one-on-one negotiations, a demand that the US has consistently rejected if only because it would mean facing North Korean demands for a non-aggression pledge.
North Korea is cranking up the ratchet by suggesting that it only return to six-country talks to end its nuclear development if Washington made concessions.
"We are still willing to abandon nuclear programmes and return to six-party talks ... if the United States takes corresponding measures," a North Korean spokesman said on Tuesday.
However, the spokesman also talked tough. He said Pyongyang was prepared to put nuclear warheads on missiles and conduct additional nuclear tests "depending on how the situation develops."
Instead of making concessions, the US and Japan are pushing the UN Security Council to clamp harsh sanctions on North Korea. A US-drafted resolution calls for international inspections of North Korea’s incoming and outgoing cargoes, a freeze on transfers of materials and technology for military purposes and a ban on luxury goods. Japan wants a ban on North Korean ships and planes from all ports if they carried nuclear or ballistic missile-related materials. South Korea may also review its “sunshine policy” of engagement with the North.
Such a tough approach has Israel worried because it would only intensify the confrontation in Asia while the Israeli priority is Iran and wants the US to "take out" Iranian nuclear installations as prelude to possible wider action for "regime change" in Tehran to suit Israeli interests. Israeli experts have stepped into the fray by suggesting that it has not been confirmed that a nuclear test took place and that North Korea probably has enough fissile material to make six to eight nuclear bombs but lacks the technology to make one small enough to mount on a missile.
They assert that Tehran is using "the current climate of international passivity" to push ahead with its nuclear activities. They have accused China of supplying Iran with nuclear materials, and technology and advanced centrifuges, as well as technology for sophisticated weapons and missile systems.
The Israelis would rather have the US engage North Korea in dialogue than confronting it because confrontation means eventual US military action while the Iranian threat — as Israel perceives it — continues to grow.
Parallel to the thinking is the possibility of Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities. In fact, the possibility has grown in the wake of the unfolding events in the Korean Peninsula.
A revealing Israeli report says: "There is still a short time left to take action before Israelis wake up one morning — as did North Koreans and Japanese on Monday, Oct. 9 —  to find they ware living under a dark nuclear shadow; but, only for Israel a nuclear Iran will be less a shadow than a mortal threat to its very existence."
Does one have to read between the lines?

Engaging the Taliban

US folly in Afghanistan

Oct.9 2006
WHERE the road ends the Taliban control begins. That is perhaps the best way to summarise the situation in Afghanistan five years after US-led coalition forces invaded the country to topple the hardline regime in Kabul. Hopes of stability and security have not been realised in the country, which has a centuries-old record of being too tough for any foreign invader to control. In modern history, the British colonial power tried its hand and failed and then the mighty Soviet Union had to retreat after nearly a decade of military occupation of Afghanistan. Obvious, the US and its allies failed to learn from history.
The biggest mistake the US-led coalition made in Afghanistan was to take the Afghan people for granted and believe that they would be happy to find an end to the Taliban rule, which was based on hardline interpretations of Islamic teachings and practices. Indeed, a majority of Afghans suffered from abject poverty and could not care less who ruled them as long as their daily needs were met. However, they are also proud people and they preferred to have one from among them to rule them. As such, it would not be a very accurate assertion that the Afghan people wanted to get rid of the Taliban.
Assessing the Afghan minidset on the basis of the Western experience with the Afghan refugees living in Pakistan was yet another mistake. For those refugees, returning home was a dream in itself, and they should never have been taken as a barometer to chart the future course of the country.
The gravest of all mistakes was the shortcoming in ensuring that the Afghans felt that they stood to lose something if they themselves turned party to destabilising the post-war country. The international community did understand this reality, and hence the flood of pledges that were made for the country. However, it was a sad story when it came to actual delivery on the pledges.
Today, studies have found that less than 10 per cent of the Afghan population have access to electricity and less than 15 per cent access to potable water. Unemployment is high among the youth. It should not have been the case had the donors made good their pledges and also helped ensure that the funds were used for the right projects.
In simple terms, whatever money was available was too less to make a real difference to the daily life of the people of Afghanistan and for them to feel they have entered a new era.
Senior foreign military commanders who have seen the realities on the ground in the country have raised the same points. Now they add that the present strength of the coalition forces is insufficient to deal effectively with the Taliban, who are indeed regrouping and staging a comeback in the countryside with many young men from the frustrated rural population joining them.
The American declaration that democracy has progressed in Afghanistan is undermined by the fact that the government's control is limited to Kabul and even that is now challenged by the increasing number of insurgent attacks in the capital. The Taliban were even able mount an attack at the US embassy a few weeks ago.
What the US and its allies face in Afghanistan today is an array of problems which include the inability to form a police force, and uncontrollable forces owing loyalty to tribe-based warlords and others who could afford to pay them better than the Afghan army and mounting cases of violations of human rights.
The West now complains that there has been a significant growth of opium poppy production since the ouster of the Taliban.
It is not too late for salvaging the situation. The powers that control Afghanistan should stop in their tracks and consider including the Taliban in the political system. It might indeed be a bitter pill for the US and its allies to swallow, but there is no escape from the reality that the Taliban are as Afghan as any other. Opening dialogue with the Taliban could be the first step in redirecting the course of events in the country towards better shores. The task is not at all easy, but it is the only sure way for turning the situation in Afghanistan.

Time to reflect — 50 years on

Oct.29, 2006

Time to reflect — 50 years on

In 1956, just eight years after Israel was created in Palestine, the Jewish state showed its aggressive regional teeth by joining the disastrous invasion of Egypt alongside Britain and France in what came to be known as the Suez crisis.
Within Israel the invasion is described as the "forgotten war" because of the fiasco that resulted from it in the short term. However, it was also a turning point for Israel to nurture its expansionist designs that started with the war of 1948 and led to the conflicts of 1967 and 1973 and the two aggressions that it waged against Lebanon in 1982 and 2006.
The world should have realised that Israel posed a serious theat to the stability and security of the region when it became party to the Anglo-French plot to retake control of the Suez Canal after then Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser privatised the strategic waterway linking the Mediterranean to the Red Sea.
It was Israel which led the action with an attack on Egypt, with Britain and France sending paratroopers in a deceptive move that was described as aimed at "separating the belligerents" but in practice to take control of the strategic canal.
Many reasons were forwarded as to why Israel took it upon itself to launch the plot, including that it wanted to stop incursions from the then Egyptian-controlled Gaza Strip, gain access for Israeli vessels to the Suez Canal, and an attempt to increase territory. Experts say the best among the reasons was that Israel had sensed Egypt's Nasser as a potential threat and saw the Anglo-French plot was ideal to get rid of him.
The grand design was foiled because the Soviet Union threatened to intervene with nuclear weapons, and the US refused to back the Anglo-French move, more because of Washington's rejection of France assuming a high-profile role in the region. The war lasted only 10 days. The invaders had to be withdrawn by the end of 1956 and it also marked the first time the United Nations assigned neutral forces wearing the UN uniform ato keep peace in the area.
It marked the beginning of the decline of the British and French influence in the Arab World and the strengthening of the US role in the region. However, the country that benefited most in the years that followed was Israel, which manoeuvred itself into a position where it got itself listed as the US's most favourite ally in the Middle East.
It played a strong card by presenting itself as a potential victim of Egypt-led Arab moves to "annihilate" it with support from the Soviet Union and the US immediately swallowed it hook, line and sinker.
Today, the US is the staunchest ally and protector of Israel and the hook that it swallowed 50 years ago remains strongly embedded so deep that extricating it could cause serious internal damages to the US itself. Or at least that the impression that Israel has managed to create.
On the anniversary of the Suez crisis, it could pay off well for the US to make an objective assessment of the events since then and realise that the loss of its credibility and decline of influence in the Middle East resulted from its alliance with Israel.
Washington might not actually believe that it has lost anything, but all anyone needs is to ask an average American today to realise that the great nation is on a fast downward slide in its relations with the Arab and Muslim worlds, thanks to Israel.

Pointing finger the othe way

Oct.26, 2006
Pointing finger the othe way


IN the hypothesis that the Bush administration were to ask the American people what course it should follow in the Korean nuclear crisis, a majority would affirm that they favour direct talks with Pyongyang without preconditions. This is what is indicated in an opinion poll conducted by the Programme on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA)/Knowledge Networks.
Washington has ruled out direct talks with North Korea mainly because such dialogue has to be based on an American undertaking not to seek "regime change" in Pyongyang and not to stage military action against the country. The deadlock in the dispute over Iran's nuclear activities also stems from a similar position adopted by the Bush administration.
The administration says it will only have dealings with North Korwea as part of six-nation negotiations meant to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear programmes. Those talks have been deadlocked for nearly a year.
It is highly unlikely that the administration would heed the message in the PIPA survey finding that its constituents favour a different approach. In any event, the US government could not be expected to implement major policy changes based on public opinion if such shifts do not fit in with its overall scheme of things. That might not be democracy in a broad interpretation of the term, but that is the way the political system works in the US.
Findings of opinion polls are often dismissed as not represenative of the public mood. Pollsters are often implicitly accused of selectivity in their target audiences with a view to arriving at and reporting predetermined outcomes. Surely, if the findings of the PIPA survey were to be put to the US government, then the stock answer would be that they are not accurate and do not reflect the real opinion of a majority of the American people.
However, the Bush administration might not be able to get away with the argument this time around because calls for direct talks with North Korea have come from the Republican camp itself, including leading senators such as Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. Such an approach was also backed by the top Democrat in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Joseph Biden, who said that the other four nations in the six-party negotiations — China, Russia, South Korea and Japan -- have privately urged the US to launch direct contacts with North Korea.
Lugar has affirmed that a Washington-Pyongyang dialogue is "inevitable if (the nuclear crisis) is to be resolved diplomatically."
One day, Lugar said, "there will be an American president talking to the 'Great Leader' (North Korea's Kim Jong-Il) and his people and saying, in essence, in terms they can understand, 'We are not going to overthrow you; we are not involved in regime change; you're going to stay'," Lugar said. Precisely that is what Washington wants to avoid, and it is highly unlikely that it would move away from this position in a hurry.
In any case, the Bush administration does not have a record of listening to public opinion. Had it listened, then the US military would not find itself embroiled in the Iraq crisis nor in the nuclear stand-off with Iran and North Korea.
More reflective of the American public mood seems to be the conclusion of the PIPA pollsters that a growing number of Americans feel the US places too much emphasis on military force and unilateral action. They want their elected representativbes in Congress to shift the emphasis of US foreign policy in favour of diplomacy, multilateral co-operation and homeland security.
Only nine per cent said the US should remain the sole superpower.
For a vast majority in the international community, it does not really matter whether the US remains the sole superpower as long as Washington, as a matter of principle and practice, stays away from using that status in order to impose its will on other countries. However, the US behaviour is quite contrary to that expectation, and this reality seems to have penetrated the American mindset at large.
The PIPA findings on American public mood over the Korean nuclear crisis could not be seen isolation. It has been established that the American people do not see eye-to-eye with their government on many major foreign policy issues including the Iraq crisis, the dispute with Iran and the overall Middle East conflict. The sad reality is that successive US administrations always choose to put up lame defences in fiery words and point the finger the other way. However, it might not be able to get away with this strategy for too long. The sooner turnaround would come the better for not only the American people but also the international community at large.