Sunday, March 30, 2003

Saddam strategy and US deceit

by pv vivekanand


IT HAS BECOME clear that Saddam Hussein's strategy is
to inflict the maximum casualties among the invading
American and British forces in the war that they
launched to topple him. The only hope, as seen from
Saddam's vantage point, is that massive American
casualties could, at some point, dissuade US President
George W Bush.
However, Bush is as determined as Saddam and it is
highly unlikely that he would step back and put an end
to the war with his goal of regime change unachieved.
A withdrawal from Iraq is not at all in the cards.
Saddam's formula is simple: He can afford to have
thousands of Iraqis killed since he does not have to
account to his people, whereas Bush would be held
accountable for the life of every American who dies in
the war against Iraq.
Sooner or later, according to Saddam's calculations,
it would reach a point where Bush and his military
commanders would have to either open up their big
guns indiscriminately in the battle for baghdad. They
would be left with no option but to do with because
they would not be able to trust anyone not to be a
suicide bomber.
Civilian casualties would be high, raising the tempo
in the international rejection of the war, and this is
one of the key cards that Saddam believes he has up
his sleeve.
The time element, according to the iraqi thinking, is
in its favour. as every day passes, pressure would
mount on bush to finish the war or call it off, but he
would not be in a position to do call the shots on the
ground.
With natonalist fervour at its height in Iraq whipped
up by official rhetorics and pledges to turn baghdad a
cemetery for the invaders, thousands are ready to
strap explosives around them or rig vehicles with
bombs and explode themselves and take as many American
and british soldiers with them.
according to sources, "several hundred" people, both
iraqis and other arabs, are waiting for orders to turn
themselves "martyr" for Iraq by staging suicide
attacks.
waves of such attacks would come when the allied
forces get closer to their strategic prize - baghdad
-- and would hit their peak when the siege of the
iraqi capital is launched.
under Saddam's strategy, every nook and corncer and
every building in the capital would be turned into a
trap for the American and British soldiers; republican
guard soldiers, regular army soldiers, baathist party
militiamen, "suicide bombers" and iraqis and arab
volunteers would be posted in every building. the
challenge that the invaders would face is: how to
"take out" the military elements without causing
civilian casualties? Any hesitation would indeed be
exploited by the defending fighters and thus result in
American and British casualties. that is the core
strategy.
in the run-up to the siege of baghdad, iraqis would
also be engaged in guerrilla warfare, with
hit-and-run attacks as well as suicide blasts like the
one outside Najaf on Saturday when a military officer
disguised as a taxi driver blew himself up and took at
least four American soldiers with him.
An iraqi spokesman insisted on Sunday that 11 American
soldiers were killed in the blast.
Saddam could not but be counting on the haste with
which the US withdrew from the UN peace-keeping force
in Somalia when 18 American soldiers were killed in
1993. Somalis downed the US helicopter soldiers were
flying on a mission and attacked other soldiers who
sent to rescue their comrades.
As of Sunday, the total casualties among US-led
forces since the start of war on March 20 stood at
59 killed and 15 missing.
On the other end, Bush and his commanders seem to
hoping that they would not have to actually take
Baghdad in a conventional military sense because they
would have to confront at least 50,000 Republican
Guards and an unknown number of Baathist Party
militiamen to contend with once they try to enter the
capital.
hopes that iraqis would rise up in revolt against the
regime and make it easy for the invaders to make a
beeline for Saddam and his inner circle are no longer
entertained. the very numerical strength of the
military force gathered inside the capital would
discourage any organised revolt; those planning it
would know that they could be shot dead at the
slighest sign of dissent.
The "pause" reported in the allied push towards
baghdad on Sunday seemed to be aimed at adding more
strength to the campaign. the us has ordered another
120,000 soldiers to join the 225,000 already in and
around iraq; and, if need be, it would appear, Bush is
ready to pour in more.
The US strategy at this point is stay put on the
ground and continue air assaults until the units are
reinforced for a direct confrontation.
In the meantime, it is believed that the US has made some deals with
Saddam's top generals, and this could have a major impact on the shape of the war.