Saturday, August 09, 2008

An obvious case of overstayed welcome

Aug.9 2008

An obvious case of overstayed welcome


AS EXPECTED, the Iraqi parliament has failed to agree on a provincial election law before taking a summer recess. It meant the local elections in the country's 18 provinces would not be held this year. Beyond that, however, the Iraqi parliament's inability to approve the draft law has dealt a setback to US hopes for reconciliation among Iraq's rival communities.
The draft law is among what the US sees as keys to pacifying Iraq and US President George W Bush himself had lobbied Iraqi leaders urging them to reach agreement so elections could proceed by the end of the year.
However, it was clear that Iraqi MPs would not be able to find common ground on the draft law because of conflicting positions on the very future of the country. The Kurds of northern Iraq are eyeing independence and they want the oil-rich city of Kirkuk for themselves. They want to incorporate Kirkuk into their self-ruled region Kurdistan where as most Arabs and Turkomen want the city to remain under central government control. They stayed away from voting on the election bill last month that would have established an ethnic quota system on the 41-member Kirkuk area provincial council whereas the Kurds were/are hoping to dominate the council itself through direct elections. Subsequently, President Jalal Talabani vetoed the bill saying it could not be adopted since the Kurdish MPs had not taken part in the voting. The bill was sent back to parliament with a UN-drafted compromise that proposed postponement of the Kirkuk vote while elections will be held in Iraq's 17 other provinces.
The proposal also included a reference to a constitutionally mandated referendum on the status of Kirkuk — which the Kurds have long demanded. And this was rejected by Arabs and Turkomen.
The details are not that important when seen against the backdrop the ethnic and regional political disputes that are becoming more pronounced throughout the country, with the US left unable to intervene and mediate.
The Shiites of southern Iraq are fighting each other for power despite their common relations with Iran.
The Sunni tribes of central Iraq want political control to be away from Sunni religious parties.
The Shiite-led central government cannot really exercise any effective authority in many parts of the country. And there is growing sense among all Iraqi groups that it is time for them to hammer down their stakes once and for all but without linking themselves with the US. Effectively, an alliance with the US is a minus point today for any Iraqi group and that is a reality that would increasingly haunt the occupation power in all its dealing with the Iraqis.
Indeed, the Kurds have an alliance with the US dating back to the days of the 1991 war that freed Kuwait from Iraqi occupation, but they are now refusing to make any amends to their slow but steady course towards independence. The US is caught in the middle without being really able to influence events in Iraq except in the military context and that too to a limited extent.
The Iraqi message to the US is clear, but Washington does not want to acknowledge it despite being perfectly aware that it has overstayed its welcome in the country.