Thursday, August 28, 2008

Neither could afford to blink

Aug.28, 2008

Neither could afford to blink




BY formally recognising the Georgian rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, Russia has signalled its determination not to back down in the stand-off with the US.
Effectively, Moscow is telling the West to rewrite Russia's name as a power at par with any other country and that it would act in the way it deems fit to protect its interests. It is declaring that it would no longer allow itself to be treated as a "third rate" power in the region.
Indeed, there could be little legitimacy to the Russian intervention in Georgia, but the US should be the last country to accuse Moscow of irresponsible action in violation of international law.
Washington has lost its moral authority, if it had any at all, to criticise the Russian action because its own behaviour in violation of international law by military intervention in other countries.
That should have been one of the key Russian considerations before it decided to intervene militarily in Georgia early this month and is following it up with determination not to let Washington browbeat it.
Moscow is implicitly raising the question to Washington that if the US could invade and occupy Iraq for whatever reasons why should Russia be pulled up for its actions aimed at protecting its interests.
Washington should not be talking about international commitments, given its established record of unilateral action and selective application of UN Security Council resolutions. The latest example of such US behaviour was Washington's recognition of Kosovo's independence from Serbia in February.
Russia is drawing a direct comparison between South Ossetia and Abkhazia, on the one hand, and Kosovo.
As Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wrote in a commentary in Wednesday's issue of The Financial Times, in "international relations, you cannot have one rule for some, and another rule for others."
Moscow has also been incensed the Bush administration did not heed warnings that the US policy of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) expansion right up to Russia's ethnically troubled border with Georgia was provocative to Russia.
The US move to include Georgia and Ukraine as members in NATO could not but be seen as attempt to substitute a Western sphere of influence for Russian in the Caucasus, and it would have been naive to have expected Moscow to allow it.
The Georgian military move this month to bring South Ossetia under its control seems to have been the straw that broke the camel's back.
The US-Poland agreement signed this month under which US will station anti-missile missiles in Polish territory added to the Russian frustration and anger to the point of a warning of nuclear attack against Poland.
One option left to the US and its Western allies to deal with the resurgent Russia is to isolate it. However, Moscow has already made clear that it could not care less for international isolation. On Monday, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin questioned the benefits of joining the World Trade Organisation in the short-term implying that the threat of exclusion from this body will not concern Moscow. That shows the trend of thinking in Moscow.
What is indeed of concern is the possibility of a Western-Russian confrontation of some kind if only because of the realisation in Washington and indeed Moscow that neither of them could afford to blink first at this crucial juncture that could reshape post-Cold War relationships.
Surely, there are matured strategists and diplomats on both sides who realise the seriousness of the crisis and who might indeed be engaged in behind-the-scene contacts with a view to defusing it. That is perhaps the best hope.





BY formally recognising the Georgian rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, Russia has signalled its determination not to back down in the stand-off with the US.
Effectively, Moscow is telling the West to rewrite Russia's name as a power at par with any other country and that it would act in the way it deems fit to protect its interests. It is declaring that it would no longer allow itself to be treated as a "third rate" power in the region.
Indeed, there could be little legitimacy to the Russian intervention in Georgia, but the US should be the last country to accuse Moscow of irresponsible action in violation of international law.
Washington has lost its moral authority, if it had any at all, to criticise the Russian action because its own behaviour in violation of international law by military intervention in other countries.
That should have been one of the key Russian considerations before it decided to intervene militarily in Georgia early this month and is following it up with determination not to let Washington browbeat it.
Moscow is implictly raising the question to Washington that if the US could invade and occupy Iraq for whatever reasons why should Russia be pulled up for its actions aimed at protecting its interests.
Washington should not be talking about international commitments, given its established record of unilateral action and selective application of UN Security Council resolutions. The latest example of such US behaviour was Washington's recognition of Kosovo's independence from Serbia in February.
Russia is drawing a direct comparison between South Ossetia and Abkhazia, on the one hand, and Kosovo.
As Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wrote in a commentary in Wednesday's issue of The Financial Times, in "international relations, you cannot have one rule for some, and another rule for others."
Moscow has also been incensed the Bush administration did not heed warnings that the US policy of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) expansion right up to Russia's ethnically troubled border with Georgia was provocative to Russia.
The US move to include Georgia and Ukraine as members in NATO could not but be seen as attempt to substitute a Western sphere of influence for Russian in the Caucasus, and it would have been naive to have expected Moscow to allow it.
The Georgian military move this month to bring South Ossetia under its control seems to have been the straw that broke the camel's back.
The US-Poland agreement signed this month under which US will station anti-missile missiles in Polish territory added to the Russian frustration and anger to the point of a warning of nuclear attack against Poland.
One option left to the US and its Western allies to deal with the resurgent Russia is to isolate it. However, Moscow has already made clear that it could not care less for international isolation. On Monday, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin questioned the benefits of joining the World Trade Organisation in the short-term implying that the threat of exclusion from this body will not concern Moscow. That shows the trend of thinking in Moscow.
What is indeed of concern is the possibility of a Western-Russian confrontation of some kind if only because of the realisation in Washington and indeed Moscow that neither of them could afford to blink first at this crucial juncture that could reshape post-Cold War relationships.
Surely, there are matured strategists and diplomats on both sides who realise the seriousness of the crisis and who might indeed be engaged in behind-the-scene contacts with a view to defusing it. That is perhaps the best hope.