Friday, August 29, 2008

How to end a losing war

Aug.29, 2008

How to end a losing war

THE world is looking for signs of a political will and inclination in the US towards ending its disastrous military presence in Afghanistan. The first impression one gets is that the US has no intention to get out of the chaotic country, given its strategic goal of having a decisive say when it comes to tapping the hydrocarbon and other natural resources of Central Asia and getting them out using Afghan territory.
However, the worsening situation in the country, the increasing number of casualties among the US-led international forces there and a dawning realisation that there could be no winners in the Afghan conflict should give rise to serious thinking in Washington about geting out.
Let us face the realities. The Taliban have definitely staged a strong comeback. They have acquired enough experience in the last seven years of fighting with the foreign forces in their country that they are now capable of mounting massive conventional attacks and inflict high casualties among the US-led occupation forces.
The Taliban-led war has spread from the south to the east and the area around Kabul, the capital. International aid agencies are reporting that insecurity is spreading to areas which were once considered stable.
The US has lost 101 soldiers so far this year compared with the 111 for the whole of last year.
In recent weeks, the Taliban staged multiple attacks on the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces in which 10 newly arrived French soldiers were killed near Kabul. Their suicide bombers also hit a US base in one of the most daring attacks since the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. These operations followed the killing of nine US soldiers in a single attack last month, and the freeing of hundreds of Taliban prisoners from Kandahar's main jail in a night-time raid in June.
Further complicating the scene is the rising number of civilians being killed in US air strikes that are alienating the people of Afghanistan.
The US and its allies content that alleged Pakistani links with the Taliban and the reluctance of the Islamabad government to allow its own people to be targeted for US-led armed action are behind the resurgence of the militant groups in the region. Does it mean that the US-led military forces would be able to check the insurgency, fight off the Taliban and realise the first objectives of the Afghan war — the capture or elimination of Osama Bin Laden, Mullah Omar and other militant leaders and supporters?
That goals could not be achieved through military means unless of course the US opts to "nuke" the vast Pak-Afghan border areas.
What other options does the US have?
The only option, it is clear, is withdrawal of all foreign military forces from Afghanistan as part of a political settlement negotiated with the participation all the significant players in the country, including the Taliban, and endorsed and guaranteed by the country's neighbours and other regional powers.
The Taliban now say they are ready to negotiate but only after foreign troops have left the country. However, that is a reservation that could be overcome if there is a genuine desire on the part of the US and its allies to scrap or at least scale down
their strategic geopolitical and economic objectives in the region and to leave the Afghans alone. The rest is easy.
Any takers?