Israeli-American pipe dream at best

Sept.9, 2008


Israeli-American pipe dream at best

FOR the first time, some details have emerged of what Israel is offering the Palestinians in return for an agreement that it hopes would close the Palestine file once and for all.
The details of the so-called "shelf agreement" — meaning that it would not be implemented until later — were released in a report carried by the Israeli Haaretz newspaper.
The draft accord says that Israel will withdraw from some 93 per cent of the occupied West Bank while retaining all the large settlements, including those surrounding occupied Jerusalem, and some land in the northern West Bank adjacent to the 1967 "green line." In total, the land Israel will retain will represent about seven per cent of the West Bank.
In return, the Palestinians would receive alternative land in the southern desert, adjacent to the Gaza Strip, equivalent to 5.5 per cent of West Bank.
Israel will offer free passage between Gaza and the West Bank without any security checks.
Israel would immediately receive the settlement blocs, but the territory to be transferred to the Palestinians and the free passage between Gaza and the West Bank would only be delivered after the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) gains control of the Gaza Strip, which is currently ruled by Hamas, which is not a party to the negotiations.
Scepticism is high that the PNA would ever gain control of the Gaza Strip. Some even suggest that chances are better of Hamas taking control of the West Bank.
As Israeli commentator Ran Cohen notes, "this only makes the proposal more attractive for Israel: we take the goods now, but we pay only after the Messiah comes."
Israel is also proposing "security arrangements" that clearly establish that its notion of an independent Palestinian state is that of a Bantustan under total Israeli control.
We don't know how accurate the reported details are. However, we do know that the two most difficult issues, the fate of Palestinian refugees and the status of Jerusalem, are being put off for negotiations at a later stage.
The reported proposal rejects the "right of return" for Palestinian refugees, but includes a "detailed and complex formula" for solving the refugee problem. However, the report provides no details.
The report also says that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas have agreed that negotiations over Jerusalem will be postponed.
In the meantime, a joint panel of the Israeli parliament (Knesset) committees has adopted a proposal amending a bill that originally called for a national referendum on any "concession" over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights of Syria. With the amendment, the bill now states that a vote must be held before concessions on any territory under Israeli legal jurisdiction, including Jerusalem.
What then is the relevance of the draft accord? Furthermore, whatever has been reportedly agreed upon also loses relevance because that agreement is reached in negotiations under the supervision of Olmert, who is on his way out of office anyway.
We know that Israel and the US need to maintain the image of "continuing negotiations with the Palestinians" while piling up pressure on the latter to accept Israeli-dictated terms and conditions.
In all probability that is what has been and is happening during the negotiating rounds since last year's Annapolis conference. Nothing has been agreed on, but the Israelis and Americans claim otherwise. And that raises the prospect that they are hoping to twist the Palestinian arm to an extent that the Palestinians would have no choice but to nod and that would be taken as acceptance of the Israeli terms.
However, it has to happen before the end of November so that it could be called the realisation of US President George W Bush's pledge at Annapolis in November 2007 that there would be an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement in place in one year from then. It was always a pipe dream and it remains very much so today.