Echos in Mideast of a distant conflict

Aug.18, 2008


Echos in Mideast of a distant conflict

THE US-RUSSIAN row over the stationing of America's missile interceptors in Poland and US-Israeli military aid to Georgia is of course part of the broader scenario involving US-led efforts for decisive influence in the Russian neighbourhood.
Obviously, Moscow is determined to follow up its military intervention in Georgia with further action aimed at pulling the rug from under the US campaign for influence among countries of the former Soviet Union.
The Russian threat to "nuke" Poland underlines the seriousness with which Moscow is dealing with the situation.
Moscow officials say that Russian military planners have started redesigning the country’s strategic plans for a fitting response to the US decision to install 10 missile interceptors in Poland and to step up help for Georgia in the conflict over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
It now appears that the Middle East could become entangled in the big powers' tug of war. Moscow is said to be eyeing Poland, the Middle East, and possibly Ukraine, as the main arenas for its reprisals for the US campaign in what Russia sees as its natural sphere of influence.
According to reports in the European press, Russia is planning to build major military, naval and air bases in Syria where it could also install Iskandar surface missiles. Obviously, installing Iskandar missiles — which are extremely hard to be detected and intercepted — would be a strong message to Israel. Israeli military advisers are helping Georgia, a staunch US ally which wants to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, in the conflict with Russia.
Israel, which has its own plans for Caspian oil and gas at Russia's expense, has also been selling sophisticated weapons to Tbilsi.
As part of its retaliation, Russia could also release advanced weapons systems withheld until now to Iran, mainly the S-300 air-missile defence system. That would a breach of a Russia promise made to the US before the conflict in Georgia that it would not give the nuclear-capable 200-kilometre-range Iskandar missile to Syria or the S-300 system to Iran. And thus the US-Russian conflict could turn
the Middle East into an extremely dangerous region.