High time to act in Somalia

Dec.3, 2006

High time to act in Somalia

ALTHOUGH not unexpected following the emergence of an Islamist force in Somalia seen unacceptable to its neighbours, the country is sliding towards all-out war on the domestic and external front.
When the Islamist force, "officially" known as the Somalia Islamic Courts Council (SICC), emerged as a potentially dominant centralised group in Somalia this year and successfully ousted warlords from key areas, including the capital Mogadishu, hopes were raised that it would be able to provide some coherence to the strife-torn, lawless Horn of Africa country. Many experts on Somalia had predicted that the UN-supported interim government based in Baidoa would fall and make room for the Islamists, who were welcomed as heroes in most areas they took over.
Since then, however, many other elements have been injected into the scenario, with Ethiopia rallying behind the interim government with military support and the Islamists securing the backing from Ethiopia's rival Eritrea. And the Islamists have also imposed a strict version of Islamic regime in areas under control, raising concerns that they are becoming Africa's Taliban, much to Washington's consternation.
Peace negotiations held between the Islamists and the Baidoa government have not made much headway. If anything, the talks appeared to have inflamed the confrontation between the two sides, with little hopes of them working out a compromise.
The Islamists are now blamed for a suicide attack in Baidoa that killed at least 12 people on Thursday. The militia has denied it was behind the bomb explosions in a statement to a particular segment of the media, but it would seem that people affiliated with the group were behind the attacks since militia sources in Mogadishu seem to have had prior information of the attacks.
Suicide attacks are seen as a hallmark of groups like Al Qaeda, and the Baidoa explosions appear to support the US allegation that the Islamists are aligned with Osama Bin Laden's group and are sheltering Al Qaeda men suspected of attacks against American diplomatic missions in Africa. At the same time, it could not be ruled out that forces that seek to add to the chaos in Somalia were behind the Baidoa bombings.
Thursday's blasts have to be seen against a failed mid-September attempt to assassinate Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed in what was Somalia's first-ever suicide attack.
No matter who carried them out, the suicide blasts Ñ which targeted an Ethiopian military position ÊÑ raise the spectre of more Iraq-style attacks staged in Somalia as the Islamists seek to wrest power by ousting the interim government. The Islamists have declared a "holy war" against Ethiopia citing the Ethiopian military presence in Baidoa and some other parts of Somalia, and it was only expected that Addis Ababa would authorise action against any Islamist incursion from across the border.
The scenario today is ripe for all-out military action pitting Ethiopian forces against the Islamists, with various other regional and international players pulling the strings from behind the scenes. Even Israel has pitched in, alleging that Iran, using alleged links between Lebanon's Hizbollah and the Somali Islamists, is seeking to gain access to Somalia's (unproven) deposits of uranium to help its controversial nuclear activities.
At the UN Security Council, the US has proposed that a UN peace-keeping force of East Africans be sent to Somalia, a move predictably welcomed by the interim government and opposed by the Islamists.
The initiative is interpreted as a dangerous move by the influential Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group as well as European experts who have warned that it could backfire by undermining the government, strengthening the Islamists and leading to a wider, regional war.
"The draft resolution the US intends to present to the UN Security Council... could trigger all-out war in Somalia and destabilise the entire Horn of Africa region by escalating the proxy conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea to dangerous new levels," the International Crisis Group said last week.
The real danger today is that the Islamists might seek to expand their spheres of influence in the country in order to gain a strategic edge which could help them challenge any regional and international move in the country. And that would mean more bloodshed and suffering for the people of Somalia, a majority of whom want only stability and security for themselves rather than any political medicine.
The region and indeed the world at large have a moral responsibility to pre-empt the recurrence of the early 90s when hundreds of Somalis died every day either as a result of drought-induced starvation or armed conflicts between tribal warlords.
In the absence of firm action by the international community in Somalia by initiating a broad, transparent and result-oriented dialogue between the Islamists and the Baidoa government, the world would have another Iraq in its hands in terms of a humanitarian disaster.