Israel might 'got it alone' on Iran

August 26, 2006

Israel might 'got it alone' on Iran

AT THIS POINT, the Iranian response to the Western offer of incentives aimed at persuading Tehran to stop nuclear enrichment programme is immaterial as far as the US and its allies are concerned. The only operative basis for them is the UN Security Council demand that Iran unconditionally freeze uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities by Aug.31 or face UN sanctions.
There was fear in many circles that the Iranian insistence that it would not formally respond to the Western offer until Aug.22 was linked to an expectation that Tehran would make a dramatic announcement about its nuclear programme on that day. Some pundits predicted Iran might even announce a successful nuclear test. That exepctation fizzled out, with Iran making no such announcement. Instead, it restated its refusal to bow to the US-led demand that it halt is nuclear programme and its willingness to discuss the Western offer.
Iran has moved along predictable lines, much to the satisfaction of the US, which is now rallying its allies to come up with a united position and impose sweeping UN sanctions against the country when the Security Council takes up Tehran's position.
Predictably again, the expected sanctions would be coupled with provisions that allow for military action against Iran at some point for its defiant position. The US does not seem to be ready for military action at this point, but the UN move would offer the perfect justification and cover for it whenever Washington thinks the time is ripe to strike at Iran.
That is the US script. However, China and Russia might not go along with the move for sanctions. US President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have been burning trans-Atlantic wires with their European, Russian and Chinese counterparts with a view to convincing them into joining the move against Iran. It remains uncertain how Beijing and Moscow would be persuaded to do so.
On the other hand, Israel, which would feel the heat most if Iran were to successful develop its nuclear activities, is finding fault with the US for not taking immediate military action against the Iranians.
According to defence officials quoted by the Israeli newsapaper, the Jerusalem Post, the Israeli military establishment believes that the US will not attack Iran, and that Israel might be forced to act independently to stop the Iranians from obtaining nuclear weapons.
The officials believe that the Bush administration does not have political support for launching a strike against Iran's nuclear sites. "America is stuck in Iraq and cannot go after Iran militarily right now," said an official quoted by the newspaper.
It is indeed true that the US is finding it more and more difficult to assemble the forces needed for its military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a military confrontation with Iran at this time would be reckless for the US military. Furthermore, the US is also seen not to possess accurate and reliable intelligence on wha exactly the Iranians are doing at their nuclear facilities.
The Israeli leadership is said to believe that Israel "could not abide" a nuclear Iran and might have to act to disrupt Teheran's nuclear programme if the international community did not act.
The prospect of Israeli action against Iran becomes all the more real in the light of the obvious consequences of a nuclear Iran even if Israel was not bombed: It would restrict Israeli options while dealing with the Palestinian resistance in the occupied territories or Hizbollah in Lebanon or the Syrians over the Golan.
The strong assumption is Israel might not wait for the US for make up its mind and take unilateral military action against Iran as the Jerusalem Post said in its aptly titled report, Israel may "go it alone" against Iran.