Surprises, but is there a miracle?

Surprises, but is there a miracle?



Israel, one of the top 10 military powers in the world and which boasts of "invinsibility" of its armed forces, has not been able to subdue Lebanon's Hizbollah — once called a ragtag militia — despite 12 days of intense fighting. Indeed, Israel has caused massive destruction in Lebanon and killed more than 350 civilians and wounded thousands in its latest assault. However, it is no longer near its stated goal of destroying Hizbollah or even forcing the release of its two soldiers kept captive by the group. Questions are slowly being raised within Israel about the wisdom of pursuing the offensive. Israeli politicians are putting up a brave face and defending the military action.
On the other hand, Hizbollah is maintaining calm. Pointedly, it has rejected demands for a ceasefire and continues to launch rockets at Israeli towns across the border, wreaking havoc among Israelis, although to a far less extent than what Israeli missiles and bombs are doing to the residents of Lebanon. The continuing barrage of Hizbollah rocket attacks on Israel is said to originate from sites close to the Lebanese-Israeli border, and this raises questions about Israel's stated aim of creating a "security zone" near the frontier to make sure Hizbollah fighters do not come anywhere near the border.
Obviously, Hizbollah has been preparing for an eventuality like the latest crisis for some time. It has played its cards too close to the chest and that has left Israel guessing as to the group's real military capabilities. Hizbollah leaders like Hassan Nasrallah have gone underground and it is almost certain that Israel has no clue to their whereabouts. The massive bomb attack on a mosque under construction in Sidon in south Lebanon over the weekend was reportedly prompted by a "tip-off" that Nasrallah and top Hizbollah leaders were meeting there. However, it transpired since then that the "tip-off" was deliberately "leaked" by Hizbollah in order to get some clues to the intelligence channels and spying routes of Israel in Lebanon.
Indeed, Israel is finding itself falling short of its expectations of a quick triumph over Hizbollah. The experience is not different from the lessons it learnt dealing with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
So, what does it hope to achieve with continuing the offensive? Of course, destroying the Hizbollah structure is one of its stated aims, but, judging from what we saw in the last 12 days, the mighty Israeli army is far from achieving that goal.
The other stated Israeli aim is to secure the unconditional release of its two soldiers held by Hizbollah. Again, it is highly unlikely that Israel would be able to ensure an unconditional release. It will have to negotiate directly or indirectly with Hizbollah, and this in itself would be deemed as a Hizbollah victory, particularly if the deal includes the release of some of the most noted Arab prisoners in Israel.
Hizbollah need not win the military conflict. It only has to hold on for sometime more, and send occasional signals that it is not a spent power to prove its point. On the other hand, Israel has to score a victory on the military front. It cannot afford to be seen as unable to overpower Hizbollah. The political and military leadership of Israel cannot afford to retract their steps and agree to negotiate with the group since that would be the clearest signal that Hizbollah won the confrontation.
Someone, somewhere has to come up with a miraculous solution to the crisis or one of the two parties has to take a step back. Given the realities on the ground, neither Israel nor Hizbollah would step back.
No one has the magic wand to prduce a solution, and it means more brutality added to the Israeli military offensive and perhaps more "surprises" from Hizbollah.
In the meantime, the suffering and agony of Lebanon's residents would continue to grow, and this is one point that Israel counts in its favour. However, as a noted commetator put it, Israel may have the clock, but Hizbollah has the time.