Fight for survival for Musharraf

February 21, 2008

Fight for survival for Musharraf


BATTLELINES are about to be drawn and swords are about to be unsheathed in Pakistan between President President Pervez Musharraf and victorious opposition parties. Indeed, Musharraf has his back to the wall, given the narrow option he has of either stepping down or prolonging the battle that would do no one any good.
However, for the moment, Musharraf is standing firm on his refusal to resign as president and is calling for a "harmonious coalition" while the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto is cobbling together a two-thirds majority coalition that could topple him by impeaching him on grounds that he violated the constitution when he imposed emergency rule late last year.
The pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q) is trying to salvage his leadership by trying to persuade the PPP to take it into a coalition but PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari has ruled out the possibility and is insisting that Musharraf should either step down or be ousted.
Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who heads the PML-N which has emerged as the second largest party in parliament, is also dead bent on toppling Musharraf.
Musharraf's only defence is that he, in his capacity as the elected head of state of Pakistan, is determined to ensure that "a stable democratic government" is installed in the country and that he be allowed to do so. That position is backed by the US. President George W. Bush has described the vote, which was less violent and fairer than most people anticipated, as "a victory for the people of Pakistan." And the State Department is nudging the next government to work with Musharraf, who represents the best bet Washington has in continuing its "war against terror" by targeting Taliban and Al Qaeda militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The only political solution seems to hinge on potential failure of Zardari and Sharif to agree on a coalition. In that eventuality, the PPP could be amenable to considering inclusion of PML-Q in the coalition and this could save Musharraf's political life.
All these scenarios are based on the assumption that this week's voting has placed Pakistan firm on the democratic path and there would not be any military surprises. Let us hope the assumption would not be proved wrong.