Watch out for Israeli moves

February 5, 2009

Watch out for Israeli moves


US PRESIDENT Barack Obama is signalling willingness to launch a direct dialogue with Iran. That is the message inherent in reports that his envoys had been in secret touch with Iranian officials. Indeed, both Washington and Tehran have denied the reports as untrue. However, there is definitely some movement in Washington towards softening the Bush administration’s line against talking to Iran while also toughening the US stand in the dispute over the Iranian nuclear programme.
Obama has said that “if countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us.” He has also said that the US and Iran could deal with each other with mutual respect.
There are hard-line camps on both sides. The influential and powerful Israeli lobby in Washington is determined not to allow any US-Iranian dialogue. Israel and its proxy forces in Washington are worried that any improvement in US relations with Iran would be at Israel's expense. Israeli leaders went ballistic when a senior US official simply attended a European meeting with Iran in Geneva last year. They went to the extent of accusing the Bush administration of a conspiracy against the Jewish state. That prompted Washington to clarify that the US was only restating is position to Tehran in the nuclear dispute and was not launching any dialogue with Iran.
Obama is expected to adopt a carrot and stick approach to the Iranians but he faces an uphill task because the pro-Israeli camp would challenge his every move and adopt whatever tactics it finds fit with a view to pre-empting and foiling his effort. An example is Iran's announcement this week that it launched its first satellite into orbit. This would definitely be used by the pro-Israeli lobby to warn that the US needs to pull Iran's teeth rather then seeking to settle difference with the theological regime in Tehran.
On the other side of the bargain, the hard-line "conservative" camp in Tehran is equally opposed to dialogue with the US. They believe that nothing good could ever come out of any relationship with the US. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has said he could do business with Obama, but he would also find the going tough in any move towards improved ties with the US because the Iranian hard-liners would seek to tie him down.
It is unlikely that any concrete move could come from either side towards dialogue before the Iranian presidential election scheduled to be held in June. What both sides need in the interim is confidence-building moves that would not be interpreted as capitulation on either side.
Or both sides could also wait out until the Iranians decide who should be their next president and pick up from that point.
In any event, the possibility of a US-Iran military conflagration seems to have faded. Of course, Israel is unhappy over it, and when Israel is unhappy it tends to strike out left and right. And that remains a real danger .