Delicate rope-trick ahead in Pakistan

February 20, 2008

Delicate rope-trick ahead in Pakistan

The world has heaved a sigh of relief that barring a few incidents, the general elections in Pakistan took place without any major incidents of violence. Some 20 people were reported to have died in election-day violence, but there were none of the major bomb attacks which had marred the run-up to the polls although fear of violence restrained voter turnout at around 40 per cent.
According to international observers, the election process met "the basic threshold of credibility and legitimacy."
Indeed, the successful conclusion of the elections signals an end to yet another turbulent era in Pakistan's history. It places the country firmly on the democratic path and it is a great achievement for the people of Pakistan.
The first to express relief was the US, which said it was pleased that Monday's vote came off relatively peacefully and without major apparent fraud. Washington also affirmed that a free, fair and transparent vote is critical to the restoration of an elected, civilian democracy that represents the will of the Pakistani people.
The will of the people was defeat of the main party backing President Pervez Musharraf in the elections. For many Pakistanis, it was vote for or against Mushrraf although he himself was not a candidate.
The outcome of the polls sees the two key opposition parties, the Pakistan People's Party of late Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) headed by Nawaz Sharif, having a clear majority. The pro-Musharraf PML-Q have no option but to occupy the opposition seats in parliament although it has kept the option of forming a coalition. However, a government including PML-Q is highly unlikely, given the bitterness the opposition parties nurture against Musharraf and his allies. They are already calling for Musharraf's resignation, which the president's spokesman has rejected, pointing out that the former army chief was elected for a five-year term last year. But the opposition could override that argument by forming a coalition government with a two-thirds majority in parliament. That is bad news for Musharraf, because they seem to have set his ouster from power as one of their priorities and they could impeach him with their combined clout parliament.
Obviously, we could expect a lot of political bargaining and horse-trading in the days ahead.
In the meantime, there is little doubt that foremost in everyone's mind is Musharraf's political future that is key to the US-engineered "war on terror" being waged against Al Qaeda and Taliban militants based in Pakistan's tribal areas on the border with Afghanistan.
Obviously, Washington would want to work with the to-be formed government in Islamabad regardless of who heads it because Pakistan is vital to its strategy in the region.
However, it would have to tone down its emphasis on the military option to solve the problem because neither the PPP nor the PML-N would be able to completely subdue the sentiment among many in Pakistan that the country should disassociate itself from the US-led "war on terror."
The next government, regardless of who heads it and who it includes, faces the difficult task of having to reconcile their internal political imperatives with the need to fight off militancy. But the military approach has to take a back seat because it would never be able to win over the hearts and minds of the people and would only breed popular anger and frustration. What Pakistan needs today , like many other countries in the developing world, is an intense and dedicated government effort to address the root cause of unrest among its people — denial of social justice.