Dice loaded from day one

February 23, 2008

Dice loaded from day one


IT would not be an exaggeration to state that the future of the US plans for Iraq depends to a large extent on Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr's expected decision on whether or not to renew a six-month cease-fire widely credited for helping reduce violence.
Unless Sadr issues a statement on Saturday saying that the truce is extended, the ceasefire is over, according to his spokesmen.
Never before after the ouster of Saddam Hussein has the US military faced a situation in Iraq where it had to wait for a decision by one man.
It is clear that a return of Sadr's feared Mahdi Army into action would find Iraq in the same situation before the "surge" in US troops in Iraq in early 2007 — death squads on the rampage accounting for dozens being tortured to death on a daily basis as part of an ethnic cleansing.
The revival of the violence would it all the more tough for the US, which is trying to persuade the country's Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds to reach agreements on sharing power and wealth. On the domestic front, in the US, a surge in violence in Iraq would add fuel to the ongoing debate on whether and how quickly to withdraw troops.
The reality on the ground in Iraq is that if Sadr decides to extend the truce, then he would only be putting off an inevitable showdown with his Shiite rivals — the camp led by Abdul Aziz Al Hakim. The two are staying away from from each other's throats and are likely to do so as long as the US military maintains its strengthened presence in the country.
It has also been hinted in certain circles that the US military is in secret contacts with both Maliki and Hakim with a view to dissuading them from renewing their struggle for control of the south. The US military, critics say, is also trying to figure out which side to support in the event of an open warfare between Maliki and Hakim. In fact, in the eyes of many US military commanders  both are bad news since they are closely linked to Iran. But is need not be so Washington political strategists who would embrace the devil if it serves their purpose.
In any event, in the long run, it would not make much difference for chances of US success or failure in Iraq whether the Mahdi Army returns to action today or remains in a freeze until later.
The dice was loaded against the US in Iraq from the word go, and players like Mahdi and Hakim would not have any bearing on the reality that the US is not welcome as far as the people of Iraq are concerned. Washington would not be able to hold 26 million Iraqis hostage for ever even with a doubling of its military presence in the country.