A non-starter on the political front

January 17, 2008

A non-starter on the political front

IT IS difficult to see what US President George W Bush reaped during his Middle East visit that came to a close on Wednesday except perhaps a hope that oil producers might increase output with a view to offsetting the record rise in prices. Even that sounds unlikely when seen against the Saudi comment that oil production could be increased when justified by market forces.
Indeed, Bush's trip did contribute to the bilateral front by opening new avenues towards strengthening US relations with the countries he visited during the trip. But those relations could not be turned around and fitted into a political context the way Bush obviously wanted to do.
Bush's confidence that he would be able to witness the signing of an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement before he left the White House in January 2009 was never realistic, given the realiities on the ground and the complexities of the conflict. It was during his swing through the region this week that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared that he did not think any peace deal was possible with the Palestinians but that he had no option to continue negotiations because of the dangerous implications of the status quo.
The situation has been further complicated on Wednesday with one partner bolting the coalition government in Israel and another poised to quit if Olmert went ahead with working out any deal with the Palestinians on the key issue of Jerusalem. And Bush's presence in the region did not dissuade Israel from launching a major operation that killed at least 18 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday.
Bush got a cool response to his call on Arab countries to "reach out" to Israel. The Arabs have already reached out to Israel with the Saudi-led peace initiative which offers peace in return for all the Arab territories it occupied in the 1967 war, but the Jewish state wanted it twisted its way.
Both Bush and his secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, harped on the theme of Arabs "reaching out" to Israel during the presidential visit, but they could not persuade anyone to bury the belief that it would be like rewarding Israel even against the backdrop that it is not ready for a fair and just settlement its conflict with the Palestinians.
Finally, Bush could find little takers in the region for his campaign against Iran. While the region's countries do have its own concerns about Iran, they are not willing to adorn an Israeli-designed and American supplied eyeglass to look at Iran. Surely, Bush would have heard the message loud and clear and during the visit, particularly the declaration by the Saudi media that Saudi Arabia would not allow itself to be used as a launching pad for military action against Iran — essentially the centrepiece of the trip.
In sum, the presidential tour of the Middle East could de deemed as a high-profile protocolish success and big boost to bilateral relations, but the president's political mission in the Israeli and Iranian contexts was a non-starter.