Again a hostage of Israeli politics

January 31, 2008


Again a hostage of Israeli politics

Few in the Arab World would shed any tears if Ehud Olmert is forced to resign as Israel's prime minister since most Israeli political leaders are of the same colour when it comes to dealing with the Palestinian problem and the broader Arab-Israeli conflict. At the same time, it is a sobering thought that the man most likely to replace Olmert in the event of the latter's resignation is from among the most hard-line Israeli leaders dedicated to wrecking any prospects for a fair and just peace agreement with the Palestinians which involves return of Israeli-occupied territory. It is none other than Benjamiin Netanyahu of the Likud bloc who, as prime minister from June 1996 to July 1999, systematically engineered the collapse of the peace process that was launched with the signing of the interim Oslo agreement, flawed as it was indeed.
The release of the Winograd inquiry commission’s final conclusions on the management of the Lebanon war of summer 2006 has piled pressure on Olmert to step down. Olmert has been mustering support against demands for his resignation, but it is not clear how he could withstand the finding of a new opinion poll that some 73 per cent of the Israeli public want him to quit as prime minister.
If Olmert is forced to step down as prime minister without calling for general elections, then it is almost certain that his successor through direct prime ministerial elections would be Netanyahu, who has always insisted that Israel is doing the Palestinian people a magnanimous favour by permitting them to stay in the West Bank which he and likeminded Israelis consider as part of the "promised land."
The only other person from the present Israeli scene who has any fighting chance against Netanyahu is Labour leader Ehud Barak, a former prime minister and current minister of defence. However, Barak also seems to have burnt his bridges for having gone back on his pledge to respond to a negative Winograd commission report by quitting government or calling for an early election and amending it to saying that he would do what was best for the country. That posture has earned him the disapproval of 63 per cent of Israelis, who, according to the latest opinion poll, want him to join Olmert on the way out.
While close Olmert aides like Finance Minister Ronnie Bar-On are insisting that an early election is not on the cards, all bets are off at this point in time.
Not that there is any immediate prospect of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations making any headway at all, given the deep rift in the Palestinian ranks. Instead of focusing their attention on the vital need for national unity for the common cause of liberation and independent statehood, Palestinian political leaders are arguing over who should be in control of the Gaza Strip's border with Egypt. That should show how internal Palestinian affairs have deteriorated to a stage where the Palestinians themselves are unable to work out an agreement among themselves, let alone even negotiating with the Israelis.
In the meantime, it seems to be abundantly clear that the Israeli voters want a total hard-line sweep of the country's leadership. That would naturally mean parliamentary elections as well as election of a prime minister. That in turn, given the political forces in play in Israel today, would see Netanyahu as Olmert's successor and his hard-line Likud and its natural allies forming the next government.
And that would be the end of any hope of a fair and just Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement in any foreseeable future, notwithstanding US President George W Bush's pledge — unconvincing as it is — to see such an agreement being signed before he leaves office next year.