No easy way out

April 4, 2006



No easy way out

THE US and Britain seem to believe that the creation of a "national unity" government in Iraq would set the beleaguered country on the track to recovery from the wounds it received from the March 2003 invasion and occupation and the ill-effects of nearly 13 years of international sanctions. They are impatient and furious that internal political bickering is holding up the formation of such a government, particularly that more and more blood is shed in the country every day.
That was what was behind the joint mission to Baghdad this week of US Secretary of State Condaleezza Rice and British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw.
Under the US-British scenario, the Iraqis will be happy to have a "responsibile" government committed to improving their lot, starting with serious work on ensuring that they get enough water and power, health and education services and employment opportunities in an atmosphere of safety and security for everyone. That in turn will lead to eventual elimination of support for the insurgency in the country, and the US and Britain would be able to press ahead with the next phase of their plans for Iraq and the broader Middle East region.
They could only wish it was as easy as that. The realities on the ground in Iraq paint a different story where militiamen with a sectarian agenda are in charge of fiefdoms they have carved out for themselves. The US military gives them a wide berth if only because they belong to the majority Shiites, who, at this point in time, are American allies.
Then there are the Sunni militias. They might have little to do with the insurgency and have mobilised their power in order to defend themselves.
Then there are the Kurds, the relative newcomers to Baghdad, who have their own agenda in the Iraqi capital.
Then there are the international anti-US forces led by people like Abu Musab Al Zarqawi who have found it too good to be true to have American targets for attacks right in the Middle Eastern neighourhood. Now they don't need US visas or training in flight schools to carry out their anti-American agenda.
Adding to the US woe is the deadlock over premiership in the new government. However, even if Ibrahim Al Jaafari steps down as prime minister to end the political deadlock and clear the way for the sought-for "national unity government," it would not offer a solution.
The undercurrents of politics in post-war Iraq run too deep for an easy way out of the crisis. Agreement would be elusive for some time on a replacement for Jaafari because the issue is divisive within the Shiite alliance, and this means a paralysed leadership while sectarian violence will rage on. By the time the Shiite alliance comes up with a compromise name, the schism among the various factions would have gone too wide to patch up, and that is where the ongoing consolidation of militia fiefdoms would prove to be relevant.